Census Tract · Ranked #20,889 of 84,120 nationally

Elizabeth Eviction Risk: Moderate

Tract 34039032102 · Union County, NJ · pop 3,303

The Moderate-tier score of 5.7/10 for census tract 34039032102 reflects conditions in Elizabeth, New Jersey. It lands near the 64th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

0% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a modest level, and 0% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average household income is about $133,769 a year. About 3% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Risk score

5.3

Moderate

Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 0% Stable renters 3% Owners 97%

Tract context

Occupied units1,033

Renter share3.1%

SVI overall0.37

Poverty rate2.1%

Median income$133,769

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Elizabeth and the region

Centroid at 40.6709, -74.2434 · click any tract to drill in

Why Elizabeth scores 5.3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Elizabeth

7.0

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.8

State political climate

New Jersey legislature & governorship

6.8

Economic stress

2.1% poverty · this tract

1.0

Supply constraint

tract rent vs county FMR

5.0

Rent control risk

Inherited from Elizabeth

7.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

7.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Elizabeth

6.5

Housing court bias

Inherited from Elizabeth

7.0

How Elizabeth compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 37

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

54%Socioeconomic
70%Household composition
61%Racial/ethnic minority
6%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: B: Still Desirable

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade B meant middle-class areas with mortgage access. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

42%Grade A
56%Grade B
0%Grade C
0%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

11.5%Housing insecurity
5.5%Utility-shutoff threat
12.4%Food insecurity
5.8%SNAP enrollment
6.3%Transit barriers
14.4%No health insurance
13.3%Frequent mental distress
23.1%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Elizabeth

What moves this score most is eviction process difficulty at 7.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Elizabeth eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Union County average of 6.6 and below the New Jersey statewide average of 6.6. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.

HOLC surveyors mapped this tract in the 1930s with a dominant grade of B ("Still Desirable"), above the redlined D tier. The grading still shaped decades of lending and development in the surrounding area.

In CDC survey modeling, about 11.5% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 5.5% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 34039032102

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 34039032102?

Census tract 34039032102 in Elizabeth scores 5.3/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the poverty rate in tract 34039032102?

2.1% of residents in tract 34039032102 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,303.

How socially vulnerable is tract 34039032102?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 37th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 54th, household 70th, minority 61th, housing 6th.

What share of households in tract 34039032102 struggle to pay rent?

About 11.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 34039032102 compare to Elizabeth overall?

Tract 34039032102 scores 5.3/10, lower than the parent city of Elizabeth at 8.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Elizabeth eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 34039032102 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of B. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Elizabeth

Top eight tracts in Elizabeth ranked by composite eviction-risk score.