Neighborhood · Ranked #18,240 of 84,120 nationally

Willow Park Eviction Risk: Moderate , Fargo

Tract 38017010106 · Cass County, ND · pop 6,046 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi

Eviction risk in the Willow Park area of Fargo centers on tract 38017010106, which scores $1/10 (Moderate tier) and is home to 6,046 residents. That is riskier than roughly 12% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 43% of renter households, a severe level, and 25% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $864 a month while the average household earns $41,602 a year, roughly 25% of income at the averages. About 98% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score

5.5

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 42% Stable renters 56% Owners 2%

Tract context

Occupied units2,676

Renter share98.2%

SVI overall0.88

Poverty rate37.7%

Median income$41,602

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Fargo and the region

Centroid at 46.8569, -96.8516 · click any tract to drill in

Why Willow Park scores 5.5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Fargo

3.0

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

4.9

State political climate

North Dakota legislature & governorship

1.5

Economic stress

37.7% poverty · this tract

9.4

Supply constraint

$864 rent vs county FMR

3.5

Rent control risk

Inherited from Fargo

1.0

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

1.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Fargo

1.5

Housing court bias

Inherited from Fargo

1.5

How Willow Park compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 88

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

89%Socioeconomic
86%Household composition
72%Racial/ethnic minority
70%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Willow Park. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

17.0%Housing insecurity
12.0%Utility-shutoff threat
23.2%Food insecurity
18.3%SNAP enrollment
12.9%Transit barriers
10.5%No health insurance
18.1%Frequent mental distress
30.0%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Willow Park

The score leans hardest on economic stress at 9.4/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Fargo eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Cass County average of 3.2 and above the North Dakota statewide average of 3.1. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 17.0% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 12.0% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

The tract is White and Black and ranks around the 88th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 38017010106

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 38017010106?

Census tract 38017010106 in the Willow Park neighborhood scores 5.5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 38017010106?

Median gross rent is $864/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 43% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 38017010106?

37.7% of residents in tract 38017010106 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,046.

How socially vulnerable is tract 38017010106?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 88th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 89th, household 86th, minority 72th, housing 70th.

Is tract 38017010106 considered part of Willow Park?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 38017010106 fall within Willow Park (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 38017010106 struggle to pay rent?

About 17.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 12.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 38017010106 compare to Fargo overall?

Tract 38017010106 scores 5.5/10, higher than the parent city of Fargo at 1.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Fargo eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Fargo

Top eight tracts in Fargo ranked by composite eviction-risk score.