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Neighborhood · Ranked #22,681 of 84,120 nationally

Downtown Eviction Risk: Moderate , Middletown

Tract 39017012200 · Butler County, OH · pop 3,198 · neighborhood within 1.3 mi

39017012200 is a census tract in the Downtown area of Middletown, OH. It scores 5.6/10 for landlords. It is home to 3,198 residents. The score leans hardest on court filing pressure at 8.8/10.

Risk score
5.6
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 19% Stable renters 28% Owners 53%
Tract context
Occupied units1,339
Renter share47.4%
SVI overall0.70
Poverty rate21.9%
Median income$42,347

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 4 tracts In Downtown
Very High
Within parent city
94 th percentile
Rank, 94th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 18 tracts In Middletown
Very High
Within county
88 th percentile
Rank, 88th percentileLowHigh
#11 of 86 tracts In Butler County
High
Within state
85 th percentile
Rank, 85th percentileLowHigh
#466 of 3,162 tracts In Ohio
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Middletown and the region

Centroid at 39.5311, -84.3882 · click any tract to drill in

Why Downtown scores 5.6

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Middletown
4.1
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
3.8
State political climate
Ohio legislature & governorship
2.4
Economic stress
21.9% poverty · this tract
5.5
Supply constraint
$840 rent vs county FMR
1.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Middletown
6.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Middletown
8.8
Housing court bias
Inherited from Middletown
7.1

How Downtown compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Downtown risk score vs. parent city / county / state5.6This tracttract 0122004.2Middletownparent city4.3Countyavg tract in county4.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 70

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 1,617Total filings over 13 yrs
  • 17.06%Avg annual filing rate
  • 23.5%Peak (2006)
  • 103Filings in 2018 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2006 to 2018
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 39017012200
Filings dropped 36% over the past 13 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Downtown. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Downtown

On the high side, tenant-organizing strength reads 8.8/10. Well under the midpoint, supply constraint reads 1.5/10. Against the Butler County average of 4.3, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.3 points.

14% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. The poverty rate is 22%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest.

At $840 a month, rents run 17% under what the rest of Middletown commands. The filing record is not thin: 1,617 evictions over 13 years of observation. Filings peaked in 2006 at 23.5% of renter households.

In a typical year about 17.1% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 73rd percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 7.3/10.

Statewide the OH average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.4 points hotter. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the most pressured. 41% of renter households spend at least 30% of income on rent.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 39017012200

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 39017012200?

Census tract 39017012200 in the Downtown neighborhood scores 5.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 39017012200?

Median gross rent is $840/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 41% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 39017012200?

21.9% of residents in tract 39017012200 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,198.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 39017012200?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 70th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 87th, household 64th, minority 19th, housing 46th.
Q5

Is tract 39017012200 considered part of Downtown?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 39017012200 fall within Downtown (neighborhood centroid within 1.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 39017012200?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 1,617 eviction filings across 13 validated years in tract 39017012200 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 17.06% of renter households, peaking at 23.5% in 2006. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 39017012200 struggle to pay rent?

About 17.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 12.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 39017012200 compare to Middletown overall?

Tract 39017012200 scores 5.6/10, higher than the parent city of Middletown at 4.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Middletown eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Middletown

Top eight tracts in Middletown ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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