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Neighborhood · Ranked #41,065 of 84,120 nationally

Downtown Eviction Risk: Moderate , Middletown

Tract 39017012700 · Butler County, OH · pop 3,388 · neighborhood within 1.4 mi

In the Downtown area of Middletown, census tract 39017012700 scores 6.2/10 for eviction risk. It lands near the 80th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

62% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 14% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,293 a month against an average household income of $59,438 a year, roughly 26% of income at the averages. Renters make up 31% of occupied homes.

Risk score
4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 20% Stable renters 12% Owners 68%
Tract context
Occupied units1,293
Renter share31.3%
SVI overall0.28
Poverty rate13.7%
Median income$59,438

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#4 of 4 tracts In Downtown
Very Low
Within parent city
35 th percentile
Rank, 35th percentileLowHigh
#12 of 18 tracts In Middletown
Low
Within county
68 th percentile
Rank, 68th percentileLowHigh
#28 of 86 tracts In Butler County
Elevated
Within state
60 th percentile
Rank, 60th percentileLowHigh
#1,265 of 3,162 tracts In Ohio
Elevated
Geographic context

Risk heat across Middletown and the region

Centroid at 39.5217, -84.3778 · click any tract to drill in

Why Downtown scores 4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Middletown
4.1
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
3.8
State political climate
Ohio legislature & governorship
2.4
Economic stress
13.7% poverty · this tract
3.4
Supply constraint
$1,293 rent vs county FMR
5.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Middletown
6.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Middletown
8.8
Housing court bias
Inherited from Middletown
7.1

How Downtown compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Downtown risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 4.04.0This tracttract 012700Middletown: 2.82.8Middletownparent cityCounty: 3.23.2Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.73.7Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 28

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 532Total filings over 13 yrs
  • 9.68%Avg annual filing rate
  • 12.8%Peak (2016)
  • 66Filings in 2018 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2006 to 2018
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 390170127002006: 27 filings (6.95/100 renter HHs)2007: 21 filings (5.41/100 renter HHs)2008: 29 filings (7.47/100 renter HHs)2009: 18 filings (4.64/100 renter HHs)2010: 22 filings (5.57/100 renter HHs)2011: 35 filings (9.33/100 renter HHs)2012: 40 filings (10.67/100 renter HHs)2013: 54 filings (14.40/100 renter HHs)2014: 47 filings (12.53/100 renter HHs)2015: 49 filings (13.07/100 renter HHs)2016: 68 filings (12.81/100 renter HHs)2017: 56 filings (10.55/100 renter HHs)2018: 66 filings (12.43/100 renter HHs)
Filings climbed 144% over the past 13 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Downtown. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Downtown

The heaviest input here is tenant organizing strength at 8.8/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Middletown eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Butler County average of 5.5 and above the Ohio statewide average of 5.1. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 13.1% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 9.8% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 28th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 39017012700

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 39017012700?

Census tract 39017012700 in the Downtown neighborhood scores 4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 39017012700?

Median gross rent is $1,293/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 62% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 39017012700?

13.7% of residents in tract 39017012700 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,388.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 39017012700?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 28th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 66th, household 28th, minority 8th, housing 10th.
Q5

Is tract 39017012700 considered part of Downtown?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 39017012700 fall within Downtown (neighborhood centroid within 1.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 39017012700?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 532 eviction filings across 13 validated years in tract 39017012700 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 9.68% of renter households, peaking at 12.8% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 39017012700 struggle to pay rent?

About 13.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 39017012700 compare to Middletown overall?

Tract 39017012700 scores 4/10, higher than the parent city of Middletown at 2.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Middletown eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Middletown

Top eight tracts in Middletown ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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