Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #31,049 of 84,120 nationally
Colonial Oaks Eviction Risk: Moderate , Elyria
Tract 39093071300 · Lorain County, OH · pop 4,550 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi
Census tract 39093071300 covers part of the Colonial Oaks area of Elyria, OH, and scores 5.1/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 4,550 residents. The main counterweight is supply constraint at 1.3/10.
Risk score
5.1
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 11%
Stable renters 15%
Owners 74%
Tract context
Occupied units1,889
Renter share25.6%
SVI overall0.67
Poverty rate21.7%
Median income$75,772
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
65
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
71
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
72
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Elyria and the region
Centroid at 41.3341, -82.0875 · click any tract to drill in
Why Colonial Oaks scores 5.1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Elyria
5.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.9
State political climate
Ohio legislature & governorship
2.4
Economic stress
21.7% poverty · this tract
5.4
Supply constraint
$762 rent vs county FMR
1.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Elyria
5.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Elyria
8.1
Housing court bias
Inherited from Elyria
6.4
How Colonial Oaks compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 67
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 73%Socioeconomic
- 88%Household composition
- 30%Racial/ethnic minority
- 38%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 758Total filings over 11 yrs
- 25.79%Avg annual filing rate
- 24.3%Peak (2018)
- 92Filings in 2018 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 92% over the past 11 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Colonial Oaks. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 12.6%Housing insecurity
- 9.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 16.4%Food insecurity
- 14.1%SNAP enrollment
- 8.7%Transit barriers
- 9.3%No health insurance
- 19.3%Frequent mental distress
- 33.3%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Colonial Oaks
Running hot, tenant-organizing strength reads 8.1/10. Severe burden reaches 18%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
The poverty rate is 22%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. On the softer side, state political climate reads 2.4/10.
It sits 1.0 points above the Lorain County average of 4.1. Average gross rent is $762, 16% below the Elyria average.
Court records carry 758 eviction filings across 11 observed years. Filings peaked in 2018 at 24.3% of renter households.
In a typical year about 25.8% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #31,049 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 7/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 39093071300
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 39093071300?
Census tract 39093071300 in the Colonial Oaks neighborhood scores 5.1/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 39093071300?
Median gross rent is $762/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 41% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 39093071300?
21.7% of residents in tract 39093071300 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,550.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 39093071300?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 67th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 73th, household 88th, minority 30th, housing 38th.
Q5
Is tract 39093071300 considered part of Colonial Oaks?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 39093071300 fall within Colonial Oaks (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 39093071300?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 758 eviction filings across 11 validated years in tract 39093071300 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 25.79% of renter households, peaking at 24.3% in 2018. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 39093071300 struggle to pay rent?
About 12.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 39093071300 compare to Elyria overall?
Tract 39093071300 scores 5.1/10, higher than the parent city of Elyria at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Elyria eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Elyria
Top eight tracts in Elyria ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · OH
Downtown Elyria
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
Pikewood Manor
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
Washington Avenue Historic District
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
Eastern Heights
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
Downtown Elyria
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
Colonial Oaks
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
Washington Village
5.1
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
Eastern Heights
5
/ 10 · Moderate
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