Colonial Oaks Eviction Risk: Moderate , Elyria

The poverty rate is 40%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. The severe-burden share is 25%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Annualized rent equals 35% of average household income of $29,167, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 25.4% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. Sitting well above the midpoint, tenant-organizing strength reads 8.1/10.

Disability prevalence runs 45.8% against 31.5% nationally. Well under the midpoint, supply constraint reads 2/10. Against the Lorain County average of 4.1, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.3 points.

The filing record is not thin: 967 evictions over 11 years of observation. 44% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, above the Lorain County average of 40.1%.

The worst year on record was 2004, when 16.6% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 13.1% of renter households face a filing.

Nationally it ranks #24,859 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.