Bancroft-Upton-Monroe Eviction Risk: Moderate

25.5% of adults report being unable to pay a utility bill, against a 9.2% national figure. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. Food insecurity affects 39.1% of adults, 21.3 points above the national rate. Pulling the other way is rent-regulation exposure, at 1.5/10.

The poverty rate is 22%, which shows up in this model as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. On the softer side is supply constraint, at 2.4/10. The filing record is not thin: 838 evictions logged in this tract.

11% are severely burdened, paying half their income or more in rent. That cohort has no absorption capacity for an unexpected bill, and it is where non-payment filings originate. At $786 a month, rents sit 13% under what the rest of Toledo commands. The worst year on record was 2006, when filings touched 17.5% of renter households.

Recent filings have not receded much: 12.4% in 2018 against a 17.5% peak. That places it #18 of 45 neighborhoods in Toledo. The closest comparables inside the same city are Birckhead Place and Scott Park.

Social vulnerability runs high at 9/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input.

Because the boundary contains one tract, 5.3/10 is simultaneously the area figure and the address-level figure. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.