5 census tracts · pop 11,653 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 4.5/10
· range 3–5.4
Heather Downs is a 5-tract neighborhood of Toledo, OH, population 11,653. The Eviction Risk Score is 4.5/10, in the Moderate tier. Cost burden runs 44% against 28.4% citywide, putting Heather Downs 15.3% over its own city.
34% are severely burdened, paying half their income or more in rent. That cohort has no absorption capacity for an unexpected bill, and it is where non-payment filings originate. Internally this is not one market. Tract scores span 3 to 5.4, so two buildings inside the same boundary can carry materially different risk. Pulling the other way is rent-regulation exposure, at 1.5/10.
The poverty rate is 23%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than the filing statistics suggest. Court records carry 346 eviction filings across its 2 observed tracts.
The worst year on record was 2015, when filings touched 7.6% of renter households. The most recent observed rate, 3.7% in 2018, is well off that peak. Among the 45 mapped neighborhoods of Toledo, it ranks #32 by risk, the lower third.
Rent takes 19% of average household income, comfortably inside the 30% line and unusually low for a rental sub-market. Average gross rent runs $914, close to the Toledo average. 29% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Underwrite the address, not the area: with 2.4 points between its best and worst tract, the per-tract table below is the operative number. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.
Risk score
4.5
Moderate
5 tracts · population-weighted
Heather Downs vs ToledoHow this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority34%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport31%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab
Court-record eviction history in Heather Downs
Aggregated across 2 validated constituent tracts. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
346Total filings (sum)
5.04%Avg annual filing rate
7.6%Peak year (2015)
3.73%Latest filed (2018)
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted
Eviction-adjacent indicators in Heather Downs
Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.
13.8%Housing insecurity
10.8%Utility shutoff threat
17.7%Food insecurity
16.4%SNAP enrollment
8.6%No health insurance
32.7%Any disability
Frequently asked
About Heather Downs
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for Heather Downs?
Heather Downs scores 4.5/10 (Moderate tier) across 5 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2
How does Heather Downs compare to Toledo overall?
Heather Downs scores 0.5 points higher than Toledo overall (4/10). Renters spend 44% of income on rent vs 28% citywide. Average rent: $914 vs $901.
Q3
What is the average rent in Heather Downs?
Average gross rent in Heather Downs is $914/month (pop-weighted across 5 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 44% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4
What percentage of Heather Downs residents are renters?
29% of Heather Downs households are renter-occupied (vs 47% in Toledo). The neighborhood has 11,653 residents.
Q5
Is Heather Downs a high social-vulnerability area?
Heather Downs sits in the 31st percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (less vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6
Which tracts in Heather Downs have the highest eviction risk?
The highest-risk constituent tract in Heather Downs is census tract 39095007207 (score 5.4/10). Across the 5 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 3 to 5.4, a spread of 2.4 points.
Q7
How safe is Heather Downs for landlords?
Heather Downs carries a moderate-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (4.5/10). Pop-weighted across 5 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Toledo as a whole (4/10), this neighborhood is higher-risk.
Q8
What is the demographic breakdown of Heather Downs?
Heather Downs has 11,888 residents. Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (73%), Black (non-Hispanic) (14.4%), Hispanic / Latino (6.8%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
