Within neighborhood
25
th percentile
Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #39,389 of 84,120 nationally
Heather Downs Eviction Risk: Moderate , Toledo
Tract 39095006900 · Lucas County, OH · pop 2,317 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi
Here is how census tract 39095006900, in the Heather Downs neighborhood of Toledo eviction risk, looks to a landlord: a 5.5/10 eviction-risk score (Moderate tier) across a population of 2,317. On the national scale it ranks #36,949 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
Rent eats 30% or more of income for 45% of renter households, a severe level, and 38% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,098 monthly, set against $53,056 in average yearly household income, roughly 25% of income at the averages. Renters make up 20% of occupied homes.
Risk score
4.1
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 9%
Stable renters 11%
Owners 80%
Tract context
Occupied units1,264
Renter share20.1%
SVI overall0.31
Poverty rate10.2%
Median income$53,056
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
23
th percentile
Low
Within county
41
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
62
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Toledo and the region
Centroid at 41.6044, -83.6178 · click any tract to drill in
Why Heather Downs scores 4.1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Toledo
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.8
State political climate
Ohio legislature & governorship
2.4
Economic stress
10.2% poverty · this tract
2.5
Supply constraint
$1,098 rent vs county FMR
5.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Toledo
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Toledo
4.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Toledo
4.0
How Heather Downs compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 31
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 34%Socioeconomic
- 11%Household composition
- 29%Racial/ethnic minority
- 61%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: B: Still Desirable
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade B meant middle-class areas with mortgage access. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 84%Grade B
- 0%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 139Total filings over 15 yrs
- 4.31%Avg annual filing rate
- 6.1%Peak (2015)
- 11Filings in 2018 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 450% over the past 15 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Heather Downs. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 10.8%Housing insecurity
- 7.7%Utility-shutoff threat
- 12.2%Food insecurity
- 9.7%SNAP enrollment
- 7.0%Transit barriers
- 7.2%No health insurance
- 17.6%Frequent mental distress
- 28.4%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Heather Downs
What moves this score most is supply constraint at 5.4/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Toledo eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Lucas County average of 5.5 and above the Ohio statewide average of 5.1. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 31st percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 139 eviction filings here over 15 tracked years, with about 4.3% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 6.1% of renter households in 2015.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 39095006900
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 39095006900?
Census tract 39095006900 in the Heather Downs neighborhood scores 4.1/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 39095006900?
Median gross rent is $1,098/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 45% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 39095006900?
10.2% of residents in tract 39095006900 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,317.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 39095006900?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 31th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 34th, household 11th, minority 29th, housing 61th.
Q5
Is tract 39095006900 considered part of Heather Downs?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 39095006900 fall within Heather Downs (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 39095006900?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 139 eviction filings across 15 validated years in tract 39095006900 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 4.31% of renter households, peaking at 6.1% in 2015. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 39095006900 struggle to pay rent?
About 10.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 39095006900 compare to Toledo overall?
Tract 39095006900 scores 4.1/10, higher than the parent city of Toledo at 3.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Toledo eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 39095006900 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of B. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Toledo
Top eight tracts in Toledo ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · OH
East Toledo
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
McComas Village
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
Warren-Sherman
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
Birckhead Place
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
Northriver
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
Bush Street Historic District
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
Heather Downs
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
River East
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
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