Within neighborhood
25
th percentile
Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #50,654 of 84,120 nationally
Heather Downs Eviction Risk: Lower , Toledo
Tract 39095006900 · Lucas County, OH · pop 2,317 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi
With a score of 3.9/10, tract 39095006900 in the Heather Downs area of Toledo, OH reads lower for landlord eviction risk. 38% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Risk score
3.9
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 9%
Stable renters 11%
Owners 80%
Tract context
Occupied units1,264
Renter share20.1%
SVI overall0.31
Poverty rate10.2%
Median income$53,056
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
19
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
42
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
51
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across Toledo and the region
Centroid at 41.6044, -83.6178 · click any tract to drill in
Why Heather Downs scores 3.9
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Toledo
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.8
State political climate
Ohio legislature & governorship
2.4
Economic stress
10.2% poverty · this tract
2.5
Supply constraint
$1,098 rent vs county FMR
5.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Toledo
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Toledo
4.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Toledo
4.0
How Heather Downs compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 31
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 34%Socioeconomic
- 11%Household composition
- 29%Racial/ethnic minority
- 61%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: B: Still Desirable
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade B meant middle-class areas with mortgage access. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 84%Grade B
- 0%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 139Total filings over 15 yrs
- 4.31%Avg annual filing rate
- 6.1%Peak (2015)
- 11Filings in 2018 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 450% over the past 15 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Heather Downs. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 10.8%Housing insecurity
- 7.7%Utility-shutoff threat
- 12.2%Food insecurity
- 9.7%SNAP enrollment
- 7.0%Transit barriers
- 7.2%No health insurance
- 17.6%Frequent mental distress
- 28.4%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Heather Downs
What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 8.9/10. Well under the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.5/10.
Average gross rent is $1,098, 22% above the Toledo average. Running cool, state political climate reads 2.4/10. Court records carry 139 eviction filings across 15 observed years.
The worst year on record was 2015, when 6.1% of renter households were served. This ground was mapped B ("Still Desirable") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Toledo. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above.
In a typical year about 4.3% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #50,654 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
At 20% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. Social vulnerability reads 3.8/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 39095006900
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 39095006900?
Census tract 39095006900 in the Heather Downs neighborhood scores 3.9/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 39095006900?
Median gross rent is $1,098/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 45% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 39095006900?
10.2% of residents in tract 39095006900 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,317.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 39095006900?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 31th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 34th, household 11th, minority 29th, housing 61th.
Q5
Is tract 39095006900 considered part of Heather Downs?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 39095006900 fall within Heather Downs (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 39095006900?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 139 eviction filings across 15 validated years in tract 39095006900 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 4.31% of renter households, peaking at 6.1% in 2015. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 39095006900 struggle to pay rent?
About 10.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 39095006900 compare to Toledo overall?
Tract 39095006900 scores 3.9/10, right in line with the parent city of Toledo at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Toledo eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 39095006900 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of B. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Toledo
Top eight tracts in Toledo ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · OH
East Toledo
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
River East
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
Birckhead Place
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
Heather Downs
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
ONYX
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
Cumberland Street Historic District
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
Bush Street Historic District
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
Middle Grounds
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
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