Heather Downs Eviction Risk: Moderate , Toledo
Tract 39095004503 · Lucas County, OH · pop 2,413 · neighborhood within 1.1 mi
With a score of 4.2/10, tract 39095004503 in the Heather Downs area of Toledo, OH reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 2,413. The severe-burden share is 44%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Risk heat across Toledo and the region
Centroid at 41.5938, -83.6184 · click any tract to drill in
Why Heather Downs scores 4.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyHow Heather Downs compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.SVI percentile: 25
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 54%Socioeconomic
- 21%Household composition
- 35%Racial/ethnic minority
- 11%Housing & transportation
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 6%Grade B
- 89%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 207Total filings over 15 yrs
- 5.74%Avg annual filing rate
- 7.6%Peak (2013)
- 11Filings in 2018 (latest validated)
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Heather Downs. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 11.6%Housing insecurity
- 8.5%Utility-shutoff threat
- 13.8%Food insecurity
- 11.5%SNAP enrollment
- 7.7%Transit barriers
- 8.2%No health insurance
- 18.3%Frequent mental distress
- 30.5%Any disability
What drives eviction risk in Heather Downs
The dominant input is court filing pressure at 8.9/10. Against Lucas County at 41.3%, 53% of renters here are cost-burdened. Running cool, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.5/10.
On the softer side, state political climate reads 2.4/10. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 207 filings here across 15 tracked years. At $777 a month, rents run 14% under what the rest of Toledo commands.
The worst year on record was 2013, when 7.6% of renter households were served. This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Toledo. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. In a typical year about 5.7% of renter households face a filing.
On the national scale it lands near the 46th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 3.3/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.
Rent consumes only 16% of average household income of $57,865, an unusually wide affordability cushion. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
About tract 39095004503
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 39095004503?
What is the average rent in tract 39095004503?
What is the poverty rate in tract 39095004503?
How socially vulnerable is tract 39095004503?
Is tract 39095004503 considered part of Heather Downs?
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 39095004503?
What share of households in tract 39095004503 struggle to pay rent?
How does tract 39095004503 compare to Toledo overall?
Was tract 39095004503 historically redlined?
Highest-risk tracts in Toledo
Top eight tracts in Toledo ranked by composite eviction-risk score.