Cumberland Street Historic District Eviction Risk: Moderate

The clearest offset is rent-regulation exposure, at 1.5/10. CDC survey data puts housing insecurity at 29.5% of adults, against 14.2% nationally. Cost burden runs 37% against 28.4% citywide, putting Cumberland Street Historic District 8.9% over its own city.

19% are severely burdened, paying half their income or more in rent. That cohort has no absorption capacity for an unexpected bill, and it is where non-payment filings originate. The poverty rate is 24%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than the filing statistics suggest.

Court records for this tract carry 691 eviction filings. Running cool is supply constraint, at 3/10. The worst year on record was 2013, when filings touched 29.2% of renter households.

The most recent observed rate, 10.3% in 2018, is well off that peak. At $843 a month, rents sit 6% under what the rest of Toledo commands. That places it #1 of 45 neighborhoods in Toledo.

The closest comparables inside the same city are Uptown and Northriver. Social vulnerability runs high at 8.8/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input.

Because the boundary contains one tract, 5.4/10 is simultaneously the area figure and the address-level figure. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.