Warehouse District Eviction Risk: Moderate

The strongest single driver of the headline number is economic stress at 10/10. The poverty rate is 58%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than the filing statistics suggest.

26.0% of adults report being unable to pay a utility bill, against a 9.2% national figure. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. 79% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building two streets over.

Food insecurity affects 39.8% of adults, 22.0 points above the national rate. Well under the midpoint is supply constraint, at 1/10. 20% are severely burdened, paying half their income or more in rent. That cohort has no absorption capacity for an unexpected bill, and it is where non-payment filings originate.

Running cool is rent-regulation exposure, at 1.5/10. 31% of renters spend 30% or more of household income on rent.

Among the 45 mapped neighborhoods of Toledo, it ranks #1 by risk, the upper third. For a like-for-like read, Roosevelt and Uptown score within a fraction of it.

Social vulnerability runs high at 9.4/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input. Rent takes 14% of average household income, comfortably inside the 30% line and unusually low for a rental sub-market.

Because the boundary contains one tract, 5.4/10 is simultaneously the area figure and the address-level figure. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.