Warren-Sherman Eviction Risk: Moderate

The poverty rate is 66%, which shows up in this model as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. SNAP participation is 61.4% of households versus 15.2% nationally. Average gross rent is $516, 43% below the Toledo average of $901.

Food insecurity affects 55.5% of adults, 37.7 points above the national rate. This is a renter market: 90% of occupied units are tenant-occupied. Annualized rent equals 39% of average household income here, past the 30% affordability line, which compresses the margin any screening standard has to work with.

On the softer side is supply constraint, at 1/10. Cost burden runs 38% against 28.4% citywide, putting Warren-Sherman 9.3% over its own city.

Severe burden reaches 23%. A tenant at that level absorbs no shock: one cut shift or one repair bill converts directly into arrears. Well under the midpoint is rent-regulation exposure, at 1.5/10.

That places it #1 of 45 neighborhoods in Toledo. Social vulnerability runs high at 9.5/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input.

Because the boundary contains one tract, 5.4/10 is simultaneously the area figure and the address-level figure. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.