Warren-Sherman Eviction Risk: Moderate , Toledo

SNAP participation runs 61.4% against 15.2% nationally. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 36.2% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. The poverty rate is 65%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.

Average gross rent is $516, 43% below the Toledo average. 90% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.

Set annual rent against average income of $15,833 and the ratio lands at 39%, above the conventional 30% ceiling. On the softer side, supply constraint reads 1/10. 23% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10. It sits 1.2 points above the Lucas County average of 4.2. This ground was mapped B ("Still Desirable") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Toledo. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above.

On the national scale it lands near the 70th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.