Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #13,812 of 84,120 nationally
Girard Estates Eviction Risk: Elevated , Philadelphia
Tract 42101003702 · Philadelphia County, PA · pop 3,742 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi
With a score of 6.8/10, tract 42101003702 in the Girard Estates area of Philadelphia, PA reads elevated for landlord eviction risk. The severe-burden share is 48%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
6.8
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 26%
Stable renters 17%
Owners 57%
Tract context
Occupied units1,323
Renter share42.4%
SVI overall0.86
Poverty rate17.3%
Median income$47,760
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
56
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
56
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
88
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Philadelphia and the region
Centroid at 39.9245, -75.1824 · click any tract to drill in
Why Girard Estates scores 6.8
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Philadelphia
8.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.2
State political climate
Pennsylvania legislature & governorship
3.4
Economic stress
17.3% poverty · this tract
4.3
Supply constraint
$1,585 rent vs county FMR
3.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Philadelphia
6.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
7.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Philadelphia
7.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Philadelphia
7.5
How Girard Estates compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 86
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 82%Socioeconomic
- 60%Household composition
- 80%Racial/ethnic minority
- 87%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 0%Grade C
- 100%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 134Total filings over 4 yrs
- 6.85%Avg annual filing rate
- 6.2%Peak (2016)
- 37Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 4 months.
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 98Total filings 2020-21
- 1.3Avg monthly (observed)
- 4.8Pre-pandemic baseline
- 0.26×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran far below baseline (moratorium effect). Eviction Lab tracked Palm Beach as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Girard Estates. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Girard Estates
Annualized rent equals 40% of average household income of $47,760, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with. Cost burden runs 61% here against 49.1% across Philadelphia County. What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 8.2/10.
On the high side, regional political climate reads 8.2/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 8/10.
Court records carry 134 eviction filings across 4 observed years. At $1,585 a month, rents run 13% over what the rest of Philadelphia commands. The worst year on record was 2016, when 6.2% of renter households were served.
This ground was mapped D ("Hazardous") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Philadelphia. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. In a typical year about 6.9% of renter households face a filing.
That is riskier than roughly 84% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Social vulnerability reads 8.7/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.
Statewide the PA average is 4.6, so this tract runs 2.2 points hotter.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 42101003702
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 42101003702?
Census tract 42101003702 in the Girard Estates neighborhood scores 6.8/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 42101003702?
Median gross rent is $1,585/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 61% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 42101003702?
17.3% of residents in tract 42101003702 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,742.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 42101003702?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 86th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 82th, household 60th, minority 80th, housing 87th.
Q5
Is tract 42101003702 considered part of Girard Estates?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 42101003702 fall within Girard Estates (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 42101003702?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 134 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 42101003702 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 6.85% of renter households, peaking at 6.2% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
Did eviction filings in tract 42101003702 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 0.26× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings dropped sharply, likely a moratorium effect. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Palm Beach), 2020-2021.
Q8
How does tract 42101003702 compare to Philadelphia overall?
Tract 42101003702 scores 6.8/10, right in line with the parent city of Philadelphia at 6.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Philadelphia eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 42101003702 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 100% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Philadelphia
Top eight tracts in Philadelphia ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · PA
Southwest Schuylkill
8
/ 10 · High
Tract · PA
Wayne Junction
8
/ 10 · High
Tract · PA
Powelton Village
8
/ 10 · High
Tract · PA
Northwood
8
/ 10 · High
Tract · PA
Mill Creek
8
/ 10 · High
Tract · PA
Allegheny West
8
/ 10 · High
Tract · PA
East Germantown
8
/ 10 · High
Tract · PA
University City
8
/ 10 · High
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