Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #7,456 of 84,120 nationally
Elmwood Eviction Risk: Elevated , Providence
Tract 44007000301 · Providence County, RI · pop 2,985 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi
Tract 44007000301, home to 2,985 residents in the Elmwood neighborhood of Providence, scores 6.9/10 for landlord eviction risk. That is riskier than roughly 93% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.
Rent eats 30% or more of income for 53% of renter households, a severe level, and 43% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,086 a month against an average household income of $31,037 a year, roughly 42% of income at the averages. About 77% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.
Risk score
6.5
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 41%
Stable renters 36%
Owners 23%
Tract context
Occupied units945
Renter share76.9%
SVI overall0.91
Poverty rate26.8%
Median income$31,037
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
93
th percentile
Very High
Within county
97
th percentile
Very High
Within state
98
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Providence and the region
Centroid at 41.8030, -71.4277 · click any tract to drill in
Why Elmwood scores 6.5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Providence
7.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.1
State political climate
Rhode Island legislature & governorship
5.5
Economic stress
26.8% poverty · this tract
6.7
Supply constraint
$1,086 rent vs county FMR
1.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Providence
5.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
6.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Providence
7.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Providence
6.5
How Elmwood compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 91
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 78%Socioeconomic
- 88%Household composition
- 86%Racial/ethnic minority
- 90%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 22%Grade B
- 78%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 208Total filings 2020-21
- 2.7Avg monthly (observed)
- 3.0Pre-pandemic baseline
- 0.91×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran below baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Portland, OR as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Elmwood. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 28.6%Housing insecurity
- 17.8%Utility-shutoff threat
- 34.9%Food insecurity
- 31.1%SNAP enrollment
- 16.0%Transit barriers
- 18.9%No health insurance
- 18.1%Frequent mental distress
- 35.3%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Elmwood
The score leans hardest on tenant organizing strength at $1/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Providence eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Providence County average of 6.1 and above the Rhode Island statewide average of 5.9. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
In CDC survey modeling, about 28.6% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 17.8% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
HOLC surveyors mapped this tract in the 1930s with a dominant grade of C ("Declining"), above the redlined D tier. The grading still shaped decades of lending and development in the surrounding area.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 44007000301
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 44007000301?
Census tract 44007000301 in the Elmwood neighborhood scores 6.5/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 44007000301?
Median gross rent is $1,086/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 53% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 44007000301?
26.8% of residents in tract 44007000301 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,985.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 44007000301?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 91th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 78th, household 88th, minority 86th, housing 90th.
Q5
Is tract 44007000301 considered part of Elmwood?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 44007000301 fall within Elmwood (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
Did eviction filings in tract 44007000301 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 0.91× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings ran modestly below normal. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Portland, OR), 2020-2021.
Q7
What share of households in tract 44007000301 struggle to pay rent?
About 28.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 17.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 44007000301 compare to Providence overall?
Tract 44007000301 scores 6.5/10, higher than the parent city of Providence at 6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Providence eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 44007000301 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Providence
Top eight tracts in Providence ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · RI
Wesleyan Avenue Historic District
6.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · RI
Wesleyan Avenue Historic District
6.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · RI
Wesleyan Avenue Historic District
6.6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · RI
Wanskuck
6.5
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · RI
Bridgham-Arch-Wilson Street Historic District
6.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · RI
Merino
6.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · RI
Manton
6.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · RI
Federal Hill
6.2
/ 10 · Elevated
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