Wesleyan Avenue Historic District Eviction Risk: High , Providence
Tract 44007000302 ·
Providence County, RI · pop 5,219 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
Census tract 44007000302 covers part of the Wesleyan Avenue Historic District area of Providence, RI, and scores 8/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 5,219. The severe-burden share is 48%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
8
High
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 42%Stable renters 18%Owners 40%
Tract context
Occupied units1,700
Renter share60.6%
SVI overall0.90
Poverty rate28.7%
Median income$40,273
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100th percentile
#1 of 4 tracts In Wesleyan Avenue Historic District
Very High
Within parent city
88th percentile
#6 of 42 tracts In Providence
High
Within county
89th percentile
#17 of 145 tracts In Providence County
High
Within state
99th percentile
#4 of 247 tracts In Rhode Island
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Providence and the region
Centroid at 41.8040, -71.4226 · click any tract to drill in
Why Wesleyan Avenue Historic District scores 8
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Providence
7.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.1
State political climate
Rhode Island legislature & governorship
5.5
Economic stress
28.7% poverty · this tract
7.2
Supply constraint
$979 rent vs county FMR
1.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Providence
5.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
6.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Providence
7.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Providence
6.5
How Wesleyan Avenue Historic District compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 90
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
92%Socioeconomic
88%Household composition
91%Racial/ethnic minority
62%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: B: Still Desirable
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade B meant middle-class areas with mortgage access. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
0%Grade A
99%Grade B
1%Grade C
0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
447Total filings 2020-21
5.8Avg monthly (observed)
6.6Pre-pandemic baseline
0.88×Ratio to baseline
Monthly filings 2020–20212020-01-01 to 2026-05-01
Pandemic filings ran below baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Portland, OR as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Wesleyan Avenue Historic District. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
34.6%Housing insecurity
22.0%Utility-shutoff threat
43.4%Food insecurity
40.7%SNAP enrollment
20.2%Transit barriers
22.5%No health insurance
21.2%Frequent mental distress
39.1%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Wesleyan Avenue Historic District
Cost burden runs around two-thirds here against 43.2% across Providence County. SNAP participation runs 40.7% against 15.2% nationally. Food insecurity runs 43.4% against 17.8% nationally.
It sits 2.3 points above the Providence County average of 5.7. Pulling hardest the other way is supply constraint at 1.1/10. At $979 a month, rents run 30% under what the rest of Providence commands.
The poverty rate is 29%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. On the high side, court filing pressure reads 7.5/10.
Running hot, local political climate reads 7.5/10. This ground was mapped B ("Still Desirable") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Providence. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above.
That is riskier than roughly 91% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 9.1/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.
Statewide the RI average is 5.3, so this tract runs 2.7 points hotter. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the most pressured.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 44007000302
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 44007000302?
Census tract 44007000302 in the Wesleyan Avenue Historic District neighborhood scores 8/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 44007000302?
Median gross rent is $979/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 70% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 44007000302?
28.7% of residents in tract 44007000302 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,219.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 44007000302?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 90th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 92th, household 88th, minority 91th, housing 62th.
Q5
Is tract 44007000302 considered part of Wesleyan Avenue Historic District?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 44007000302 fall within Wesleyan Avenue Historic District (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
Did eviction filings in tract 44007000302 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 0.88× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings ran modestly below normal. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Portland, OR), 2020-2021.
Q7
What share of households in tract 44007000302 struggle to pay rent?
About 34.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 22.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 44007000302 compare to Providence overall?
Tract 44007000302 scores 8/10, higher than the parent city of Providence at 6.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Providence eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 44007000302 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of B. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Providence
Top eight tracts in Providence ranked by composite eviction-risk score.