Skip to content
Neighborhood · Ranked #63,481 of 84,120 nationally

Sierra Eviction Risk: Lower , Surprise

Tract 04013040525 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 2,965 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi

Census tract 04013040525 runs through the Sierra neighborhood of Surprise. With 2,965 residents, it scores $1/10 for landlords. On the national scale it ranks #50,336 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 60% of renter households, a severe level, and 30% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $2,481 a month while the average household earns $75,139 a year, roughly 40% of income at the averages. About 5% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Risk score
2.7
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 3% Stable renters 2% Owners 95%
Tract context
Occupied units1,713
Renter share4.9%
SVI overall0.07
Poverty rate8.8%
Median income$75,139

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 2 tracts In Sierra
Very High
Within parent city
75 th percentile
Rank, 75th percentileLowHigh
#8 of 29 tracts In Surprise
High
Within county
42 th percentile
Rank, 42nd percentileLowHigh
#590 of 1,009 tracts In Maricopa
Moderate
Within state
32 th percentile
Rank, 32nd percentileLowHigh
#1,206 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Surprise and the region

Centroid at 33.6608, -112.4270 · click any tract to drill in

Why Sierra scores 2.7

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Surprise
2.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
8.8% poverty · this tract
2.2
Supply constraint
$2,481 rent vs county FMR
7.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Surprise
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Surprise
1.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Surprise
2.0

How Sierra compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Sierra risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 2.72.7This tracttract 040525Surprise: 2.42.4Surpriseparent cityCounty: 3.33.3Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.63.6Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 7

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 1Total filings over 1 yrs
  • 9.48%Avg annual filing rate
  • 9.5%Peak (2005)
  • 1Filings in 2005 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2001 to 2005
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 040130405252001: 0 filings (0.00/100 renter HHs)2002: 0 filings (0.00/100 renter HHs)2003: 0 filings (0.00/100 renter HHs)2004: 0 filings (0.00/100 renter HHs)2005: 1 filings (9.48/100 renter HHs)
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Sierra. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Sierra

The heaviest input here is supply constraint at 7.7/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Surprise eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Maricopa County average of 5.1 and in line with the Arizona statewide average of 4.9. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 7th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 1 eviction filings here over 1 tracked years, with about 9.5% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 9.5% of renter households in 2005.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 04013040525

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013040525?

Census tract 04013040525 in the Sierra neighborhood scores 2.7/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 04013040525?

Median gross rent is $2,481/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 60% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 04013040525?

8.8% of residents in tract 04013040525 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,965.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 04013040525?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 7th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 30th, household 16th, minority 6th, housing 4th.
Q5

Is tract 04013040525 considered part of Sierra?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013040525 fall within Sierra (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013040525?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 1 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 04013040525 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 9.48% of renter households, peaking at 9.5% in 2005. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 04013040525 struggle to pay rent?

About 3.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 2.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 04013040525 compare to Surprise overall?

Tract 04013040525 scores 2.7/10, higher than the parent city of Surprise at 2.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Surprise eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Surprise

Top eight tracts in Surprise ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

Related