Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #61,558 of 84,120 nationally
Sierra Eviction Risk: Lower , Surprise
Tract 04013040524 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 1,657 · neighborhood within 1.2 mi
Census tract 04013040524 covers part of the Sierra area of Surprise, AZ, and scores 3.3/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 1,657 residents. The main counterweight is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10.
Risk score
3.3
Lower
Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 3%
Stable renters 3%
Owners 94%
Tract context
Occupied units868
Renter share5.6%
SVI overall0.23
Poverty rate11.4%
Median income$86,806
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
75
th percentile
High
Within county
50
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
47
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across Surprise and the region
Centroid at 33.6759, -112.4170 · click any tract to drill in
Why Sierra scores 3.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Surprise
2.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
11.4% poverty · this tract
2.9
Supply constraint
tract rent vs county FMR
5.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Surprise
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Surprise
1.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Surprise
2.0
How Sierra compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 23
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 55%Socioeconomic
- 12%Household composition
- 17%Racial/ethnic minority
- 15%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Sierra. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 3.5%Housing insecurity
- 2.4%Utility-shutoff threat
- 7.2%Food insecurity
- 5.7%SNAP enrollment
- 4.0%Transit barriers
- 5.1%No health insurance
- 8.7%Frequent mental distress
- 39.6%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Sierra
On the high side, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10. Well under the midpoint, tenant-organizing strength reads 1.5/10. 53% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, higher than the Maricopa County average of 46.0%.
SNAP participation runs 5.7% against 15.2% nationally. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 2.4% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.
On the national scale it lands near the 27th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. Only 6% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.
Social vulnerability reads 3/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured.
It tracks the Maricopa County average of 3.7 closely.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 04013040524
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013040524?
Census tract 04013040524 in the Sierra neighborhood scores 3.3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the poverty rate in tract 04013040524?
11.4% of residents in tract 04013040524 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,657.
Q3
How socially vulnerable is tract 04013040524?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 23th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 55th, household 12th, minority 17th, housing 15th.
Q4
Is tract 04013040524 considered part of Sierra?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013040524 fall within Sierra (neighborhood centroid within 1.2 miles, OSM data).
Q5
What share of households in tract 04013040524 struggle to pay rent?
About 3.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 2.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q6
How does tract 04013040524 compare to Surprise overall?
Tract 04013040524 scores 3.3/10, right in line with the parent city of Surprise at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Surprise eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Surprise
Top eight tracts in Surprise ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · AZ
Surprise Original Townsite
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Shawnee Village
3.8
/ 10 · Low
Tract · AZ
Arapaho Village
3.7
/ 10 · Low
Tract · AZ
Surprise Original Townsite
3.7
/ 10 · Low
Tract · AZ
Veramonte
3.7
/ 10 · Low
Tract · AZ
Arizona Traditions
3.6
/ 10 · Low
Tract · AZ
Bell West Ranch
3.4
/ 10 · Low
Tract · AZ
Sierra
3.3
/ 10 · Low
Related