2 census tracts · pop 4,622 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 3.3/10
· range 3.3–3.3
Sierra spans 2 census tracts of Surprise, AZ and houses 4,622 people. Scored across those inputs it reaches 3.3/10, placing it in the Lower tier. 57% of renters here are cost-burdened at the 30% threshold, dramatically above the Surprise rate of 32.2%.
The main counterweight is rent-regulation exposure, at 1/10. On the softer side is tenant-organizing strength, at 1.5/10. Severe burden reaches 19%. A tenant at that level absorbs no shock: one cut shift or one repair bill converts directly into arrears.
Average gross rent is $1,592, 22% below the Surprise average of $2,033. Well under the midpoint is housing-court posture, at 2/10. The voucher gap is 17.5%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which shows up as churn rather than arrears.
Court records for this tract carry 1 eviction filings. Food insecurity affects 6.8% of adults, 11.0 points below the national rate.
SNAP participation is 5.2% of households versus 15.2% nationally. The worst year on record was 2005, when filings touched 9.5% of renter households. That places it #5 of 16 neighborhoods in Surprise.
With little internal variation, 3.3/10 is a fair proxy for any address inside the boundary. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.
Risk score
3.3
Lower
2 tracts · population-weighted
Sierra vs SurpriseHow this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority10%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport8%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab
Court-record eviction history in Sierra
Aggregated across 1 validated constituent tract. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
1Total filings (sum)
9.48%Avg annual filing rate
9.5%Peak year (2005)
9.48%Latest filed (2005)
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted
Eviction-adjacent indicators in Sierra
Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.
3.2%Housing insecurity
2.1%Utility shutoff threat
6.6%Food insecurity
5.1%SNAP enrollment
5.0%No health insurance
39.3%Any disability
Frequently asked
About Sierra
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for Sierra?
Sierra scores 3.3/10 (Lower tier) across 2 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2
How does Sierra compare to Surprise overall?
Sierra scores 0.1 points higher than Surprise overall (3.2/10). Renters spend 57% of income on rent vs 32% citywide. Average rent: $1,592 vs $2,033.
Q3
What is the average rent in Sierra?
Average gross rent in Sierra is $1,592/month (pop-weighted across 2 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 57% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4
What percentage of Sierra residents are renters?
5% of Sierra households are renter-occupied (vs 21% in Surprise). The neighborhood has 4,622 residents.
Q5
Is Sierra a high social-vulnerability area?
Sierra sits in the 13th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (low vulnerability). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6
Which tracts in Sierra have the highest eviction risk?
The highest-risk constituent tract in Sierra is census tract 04013040525 (score 3.3/10). Across the 2 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 3.3 to 3.3, a spread of 0 points.
Q7
How safe is Sierra for landlords?
Sierra carries a lower-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (3.3/10). Pop-weighted across 2 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Surprise as a whole (3.2/10), this neighborhood is in line with the citywide level.
Q8
What is the demographic breakdown of Sierra?
Sierra has 4,628 residents. Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (93.5%), Hispanic / Latino (3.5%), Asian (non-Hispanic) (1.3%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
