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Neighborhood · Ranked #79,124 of 84,120 nationally

Windstone Ranch Eviction Risk: Lower , Surprise

Tract 04013040538 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 4,482 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi

Tract 04013040538 covers the Windstone Ranch area of Surprise in Arizona. Home to 4,482 residents, it scores $1/10 on landlord eviction risk. That is riskier than about 13% of US census tracts.

About 25% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a moderate level, and 0% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $1,986 a month while the average household earns $113,095 a year, roughly 21% of income at the averages. About 7% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Risk score
1.5
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 2% Stable renters 6% Owners 92%
Tract context
Occupied units2,104
Renter share7.3%
SVI overall0.28
Poverty rate3.2%
Median income$113,095

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Windstone Ranch
Moderate
Within parent city
7 th percentile
Rank, 7th percentileLowHigh
#27 of 29 tracts In Surprise
Very Low
Within county
12 th percentile
Rank, 12th percentileLowHigh
#885 of 1,009 tracts In Maricopa
Very Low
Within state
8 th percentile
Rank, 8th percentileLowHigh
#1,617 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
Very Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Surprise and the region

Centroid at 33.7098, -112.3876 · click any tract to drill in

Why Windstone Ranch scores 1.5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Surprise
2.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
3.2% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$1,986 rent vs county FMR
5.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Surprise
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Surprise
1.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Surprise
2.0

How Windstone Ranch compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Windstone Ranch risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 1.51.5This tracttract 040538Surprise: 2.42.4Surpriseparent cityCounty: 3.33.3Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.63.6Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 28

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Windstone Ranch

The score leans hardest on supply constraint at 5.2/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Surprise eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Maricopa County average of 5.1 and below the Arizona statewide average of 4.9. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 8.2% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 4.9% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 28th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 04013040538

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013040538?

Census tract 04013040538 in the Windstone Ranch neighborhood scores 1.5/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 04013040538?

Median gross rent is $1,986/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 25% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 04013040538?

3.2% of residents in tract 04013040538 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,482.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 04013040538?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 28th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 24th, household 29th, minority 51th, housing 38th.
Q5

Is tract 04013040538 considered part of Windstone Ranch?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013040538 fall within Windstone Ranch (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 04013040538 struggle to pay rent?

About 8.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 04013040538 compare to Surprise overall?

Tract 04013040538 scores 1.5/10, lower than the parent city of Surprise at 2.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Surprise eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Surprise

Top eight tracts in Surprise ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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