Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #50,654 of 84,120 nationally
Casitas II at Rancho Santa Fe Eviction Risk: Lower , Avondale
Tract 04013061015 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 5,425 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
With a score of 3.9/10, tract 04013061015 in the Casitas II at Rancho Santa Fe area of Avondale, AZ reads lower for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 5,425. 40% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Risk score
3.9
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 16%
Stable renters 11%
Owners 73%
Tract context
Occupied units1,929
Renter share26.9%
SVI overall0.55
Poverty rate7.2%
Median income$80,288
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
47
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
63
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
62
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Avondale and the region
Centroid at 33.4723, -112.3317 · click any tract to drill in
Why Casitas II at Rancho Santa Fe scores 3.9
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Avondale
5.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
7.2% poverty · this tract
1.8
Supply constraint
$2,138 rent vs county FMR
6.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Avondale
7.2
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Avondale
7.9
Housing court bias
Inherited from Avondale
6.4
How Casitas II at Rancho Santa Fe compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 55
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 47%Socioeconomic
- 91%Household composition
- 71%Racial/ethnic minority
- 22%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 89Total filings over 5 yrs
- 7.79%Avg annual filing rate
- 15.3%Peak (2004)
- 20Filings in 2005 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 5 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 12.6%Housing insecurity
- 6.6%Utility-shutoff threat
- 15.8%Food insecurity
- 10.0%SNAP enrollment
- 8.3%Transit barriers
- 14.0%No health insurance
- 15.1%Frequent mental distress
- 28.5%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Casitas II at Rancho Santa Fe
Against Maricopa County at 46.0%, 60% of renters here are cost-burdened. The score leans hardest on court filing pressure at 8.9/10.
On the softer side, economic stress reads 1.8/10. Running cool, eviction-process difficulty reads 2/10.
At $2,138 a month, rents run 17% over what the rest of Avondale commands. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 89 filings here across 5 tracked years.
The worst year on record was 2004, when 15.3% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 7.8% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 40th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
Social vulnerability reads 5.9/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured.
It tracks the Maricopa County average of 3.7 closely. Annual rent works out to 32% of average household income of $80,288. 27% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 04013061015
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013061015?
Census tract 04013061015 in the Casitas II at Rancho Santa Fe neighborhood scores 3.9/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04013061015?
Median gross rent is $2,138/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 60% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04013061015?
7.2% of residents in tract 04013061015 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,425.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04013061015?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 55th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 47th, household 91th, minority 71th, housing 22th.
Q5
Is tract 04013061015 considered part of Casitas II at Rancho Santa Fe?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013061015 fall within Casitas II at Rancho Santa Fe (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013061015?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 89 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 04013061015 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 7.79% of renter households, peaking at 15.3% in 2004. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 04013061015 struggle to pay rent?
About 12.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 04013061015 compare to Avondale overall?
Tract 04013061015 scores 3.9/10, right in line with the parent city of Avondale at 4.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Avondale eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Avondale
Top eight tracts in Avondale ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · AZ
04013082209
5.5
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · AZ
Coldwater Springs
5.5
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · AZ
Litchfield Junction
5.5
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · AZ
Tierra at Rancho Santa Fe
5.1
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Litchfield Junction
5
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013082024
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Alamar
4.5
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013082210
4
/ 10 · Moderate
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