Neighborhood · Ranked #56,146 of 84,120 nationally

Ashton Ranch Eviction Risk: Moderate , Surprise

Tract 04013061034 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 8,334 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi

Census tract 04013061034 sits in the Ashton Ranch neighborhood of Surprise, Arizona. It has a population of 8,334 and an eviction-risk score of 4.8/10 (Moderate tier). 65% of renters here pay 30%+ of their household income on rent, with 24% severely cost-burdened (≥50%). Median gross rent is $1,841/month against a median household income of $94,458 — roughly 23% rent-to-income at the medians.

Risk score

4.8

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 22% Stable renters 12% Owners 66%

Tract context

Occupied units2,615

Renter share33.2%

SVI overall0.34

Poverty rate7.1%

Median income$94,458

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Surprise and the region

Centroid at 33.6165, -112.3679 · click any tract to drill in

Why Ashton Ranch scores 4.8

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Surprise

2.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.1

State political climate

Arizona legislature & governorship

2.2

Economic stress

7.1% poverty · this tract

1.8

Supply constraint

$1,841 rent vs county FMR

4.4

Rent control risk

Inherited from Surprise

1.0

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

2.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Surprise

1.5

Housing court bias

Inherited from Surprise

2.0

How Ashton Ranch compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 34

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

29%Socioeconomic
33%Household composition
55%Racial/ethnic minority
44%Housing & transportation

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

15Total filings over 2 yrs
112.52%Avg annual filing rate
34.4%Peak (2005)
13Filings in 2005 (latest validated)

Filings by year 2001 — 2005

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

10.6%Housing insecurity
6.0%Utility-shutoff threat
12.8%Food insecurity
8.5%SNAP enrollment
7.5%Transit barriers
10.2%No health insurance
16.0%Frequent mental distress
25.4%Any disability

Frequently asked

About tract 04013061034

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013061034?

Census tract 04013061034 in the Ashton Ranch neighborhood scores 4.8/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 04013061034?

Median gross rent is $1,841/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 65% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 04013061034?

7.1% of residents in tract 04013061034 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 8,334.

How socially vulnerable is tract 04013061034?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 34th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 29th, household 33th, minority 55th, housing 44th.

Is tract 04013061034 considered part of Ashton Ranch?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013061034 fall within Ashton Ranch (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013061034?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 15 eviction filings across 2 validated years in tract 04013061034 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 112.52% of renter households, peaking at 34.4% in 2005. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.

What share of households in tract 04013061034 struggle to pay rent?

About 10.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.0% also reported utility shutoff threats — a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 04013061034 compare to Surprise overall?

Tract 04013061034 scores 4.8/10 — higher than the parent city of Surprise at 2.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Surprise eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Surprise

Top eight tracts in Surprise ranked by composite eviction-risk score.