Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #50,269 of 84,120 nationally
Tuscany Shores at Desert Harbor Eviction Risk: Moderate , Sun City
Tract 04013071516 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 4,363 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi
Census tract 04013071516 sits in the Tuscany Shores at Desert Harbor neighborhood of Sun City, Arizona. It has a population of 4,363 and an eviction-risk score of 5.0/10 (Moderate tier). 66% of renters here pay 30%+ of their household income on rent, with 39% severely cost-burdened (≥50%). Median gross rent is $1,744/month against a median household income of $59,000 — roughly 35% rent-to-income at the medians.
Risk score
5.0
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 48%
Stable renters 25%
Owners 27%
Tract context
Occupied units2,312
Renter share72.8%
SVI overall0.77
Poverty rate8.6%
Median income$59,000
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
49
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
54
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across Sun City and the region
Centroid at 33.6034, -112.2607 · click any tract to drill in
Why Tuscany Shores at Desert Harbor scores 5.0
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Sun City
5.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
8.6% poverty · this tract
2.2
Supply constraint
$1,744 rent vs county FMR
3.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Sun City
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
1.9
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Sun City
1.2
Housing court bias
Inherited from Sun City
2.1
How Tuscany Shores at Desert Harbor compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 77
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 45%Socioeconomic
- 91%Household composition
- 55%Racial/ethnic minority
- 91%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 237Total filings over 5 yrs
- 22.93%Avg annual filing rate
- 49.5%Peak (2004)
- 56Filings in 2005 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 833% over the past 5 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Tuscany Shores at Desert Harbor. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 8.2%Housing insecurity
- 4.6%Utility-shutoff threat
- 10.9%Food insecurity
- 7.3%SNAP enrollment
- 6.7%Transit barriers
- 10.3%No health insurance
- 13.9%Frequent mental distress
- 33.5%Any disability
Frequently asked
About tract 04013071516
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013071516?
Census tract 04013071516 in the Tuscany Shores at Desert Harbor neighborhood scores 5.0/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04013071516?
Median gross rent is $1,744/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 66% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04013071516?
8.6% of residents in tract 04013071516 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,363.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04013071516?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 77th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 45th, household 91th, minority 55th, housing 91th.
Q5
Is tract 04013071516 considered part of Tuscany Shores at Desert Harbor?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013071516 fall within Tuscany Shores at Desert Harbor (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013071516?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 237 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 04013071516 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 22.93% of renter households, peaking at 49.5% in 2004. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 04013071516 struggle to pay rent?
About 8.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.6% also reported utility shutoff threats — a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 04013071516 compare to Sun City overall?
Tract 04013071516 scores 5.0/10 — higher than the parent city of Sun City at 4.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Sun City eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Sun City
Top eight tracts in Sun City ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · AZ
04013071801
5.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013071505
5.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Pueblo El Mirage RV Resort
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013071802
5.0
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Westbrook Village
5.0
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Westbrook Village
5.0
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013071503
5.0
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Tuscany Shores at Desert Harbor
4.9
/ 10 · Moderate
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