Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #41,206 of 84,120 nationally
Dreamland Villa Eviction Risk: Moderate , Mesa
Tract 04013420209 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 4,238 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi
04013420209 is a census tract in the Dreamland Villa area of Mesa, AZ. It scores 4.5/10 for landlords. It is home to 4,238 residents. The severe-burden share is 31%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
4.5
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 10%
Stable renters 10%
Owners 80%
Tract context
Occupied units2,089
Renter share19.8%
SVI overall0.27
Poverty rate16.6%
Median income$60,625
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
78
th percentile
High
Within county
73
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
73
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Mesa and the region
Centroid at 33.4298, -111.7087 · click any tract to drill in
Why Dreamland Villa scores 4.5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Mesa
3.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
16.6% poverty · this tract
4.1
Supply constraint
$1,612 rent vs county FMR
3.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Mesa
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Mesa
2.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Mesa
2.5
How Dreamland Villa compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 27
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 32%Socioeconomic
- 64%Household composition
- 30%Racial/ethnic minority
- 14%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 66Total filings over 5 yrs
- 5.98%Avg annual filing rate
- 9.2%Peak (2001)
- 6Filings in 2005 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 70% over the past 5 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Dreamland Villa. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 8.5%Housing insecurity
- 5.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 13.0%Food insecurity
- 9.9%SNAP enrollment
- 7.0%Transit barriers
- 10.5%No health insurance
- 13.4%Frequent mental distress
- 37.0%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Dreamland Villa
The clearest offset is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10.
On the softer side, state political climate reads 2.2/10. Cost burden runs 52% here against 46.0% across Maricopa County. The filing record is not thin: 66 evictions over 5 years of observation.
Against the Maricopa County average of 3.7, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 0.8 points. The worst year on record was 2001, when 9.2% of renter households were served.
In a typical year about 6.0% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #41,206 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. At 20% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out.
CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 3.4/10. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured. Average gross rent is $1,612, close to the Mesa average.
Annual rent works out to 32% of average household income of $60,625.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 04013420209
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013420209?
Census tract 04013420209 in the Dreamland Villa neighborhood scores 4.5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04013420209?
Median gross rent is $1,612/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 52% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04013420209?
16.6% of residents in tract 04013420209 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,238.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04013420209?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 27th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 32th, household 64th, minority 30th, housing 14th.
Q5
Is tract 04013420209 considered part of Dreamland Villa?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013420209 fall within Dreamland Villa (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013420209?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 66 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 04013420209 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 5.98% of renter households, peaking at 9.2% in 2001. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 04013420209 struggle to pay rent?
About 8.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 04013420209 compare to Mesa overall?
Tract 04013420209 scores 4.5/10, higher than the parent city of Mesa at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Mesa eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Mesa
Top eight tracts in Mesa ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · AZ
Fuller Ranch
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Mesa Patios
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Mesa Patios
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013421901
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Hohokam Village
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013421902
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013422001
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013522802
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
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