Neighborhood · Ranked #61,558 of 84,120 nationally

Kingsgate Eviction Risk: Lower , Mesa

Tract 04013422302 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 5,667 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi

Census tract 04013422302 covers part of the Kingsgate area of Mesa, AZ, and scores 3.3/10 on landlord eviction risk. The severe-burden share is 28%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Risk score

3.3

Lower

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 28% Stable renters 21% Owners 51%

Tract context

Occupied units2,057

Renter share49.0%

SVI overall0.70

Poverty rate8.2%

Median income$73,393

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Mesa and the region

Centroid at 33.3861, -111.7971 · click any tract to drill in

Why Kingsgate scores 3.3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Mesa

3.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.1

State political climate

Arizona legislature & governorship

2.2

Economic stress

8.2% poverty · this tract

2.1

Supply constraint

$1,400 rent vs county FMR

2.2

Rent control risk

Inherited from Mesa

1.0

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

3.0

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Mesa

2.5

Housing court bias

Inherited from Mesa

2.5

How Kingsgate compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 70

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

62%Socioeconomic
84%Household composition
63%Racial/ethnic minority
54%Housing & transportation

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.¹

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

850Total filings over 5 yrs
20.55%Avg annual filing rate
24.3%Peak (2004)
153Filings in 2005 (latest validated)

Filings by year 2001 to 2005

Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 5 months.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

12.9%Housing insecurity
7.3%Utility-shutoff threat
16.4%Food insecurity
11.3%SNAP enrollment
9.4%Transit barriers
12.8%No health insurance
17.6%Frequent mental distress
28.4%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Kingsgate

The clearest offset is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10.

Against Maricopa County at 46.0%, 56% of renters here are cost-burdened. Running cool, economic stress reads 2.1/10. Court records carry 850 eviction filings across 5 observed years.

Average gross rent is $1,400, 14% below the Mesa average. The worst year on record was 2004, when 24.3% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 20.5% of renter households face a filing.

That is riskier than roughly 27% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 7.3/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured. It tracks the Maricopa County average of 3.7 closely. Annual rent works out to 23% of average household income of $73,393.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 04013422302

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013422302?

Census tract 04013422302 in the Kingsgate neighborhood scores 3.3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 04013422302?

Median gross rent is $1,400/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 56% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 04013422302?

8.2% of residents in tract 04013422302 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,667.

How socially vulnerable is tract 04013422302?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 70th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 62th, household 84th, minority 63th, housing 54th.

Is tract 04013422302 considered part of Kingsgate?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013422302 fall within Kingsgate (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013422302?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 850 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 04013422302 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 20.55% of renter households, peaking at 24.3% in 2004. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.

What share of households in tract 04013422302 struggle to pay rent?

About 12.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 04013422302 compare to Mesa overall?

Tract 04013422302 scores 3.3/10, right in line with the parent city of Mesa at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Mesa eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Mesa

Top eight tracts in Mesa ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

Eviction Lab tract-level court records (2000-2018) and Eviction Tracking System, Princeton University. Open Data Commons Attribution license. evictionlab.org