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Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally

Eastmark Eviction Risk: Lower , Mesa

Tract 04013422647 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 8,076 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi

Tract 04013422647 sits in the Eastmark area of Mesa eviction risk, AZ, carrying an eviction-risk score of 3/10. It is home to 8,076 residents. 46% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 5% Stable renters 4% Owners 91%
Tract context
Occupied units3,063
Renter share8.4%
SVI overall0.03
Poverty rate2.0%
Median income$149,737

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 2 tracts In Eastmark
Very High
Within parent city
33 th percentile
Rank, 33rd percentileLowHigh
#89 of 133 tracts In Mesa
Low
Within county
17 th percentile
Rank, 17th percentileLowHigh
#836 of 1,009 tracts In Maricopa
Very Low
Within state
40 th percentile
Rank, 40th percentileLowHigh
#1,065 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Mesa and the region

Centroid at 33.3361, -111.6179 · click any tract to drill in

Why Eastmark scores 3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Mesa
3.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
2.0% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,329 rent vs county FMR
6.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Mesa
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Mesa
2.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Mesa
2.5

How Eastmark compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Eastmark risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 3.03.0This tracttract 422647Mesa: 3.23.2Mesaparent cityCounty: 3.73.7Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.83.8Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 3

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Eastmark. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Eastmark

Average gross rent is $2,329, 44% above the Mesa average. The main counterweight is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10.

On the softer side, economic stress reads 1/10. Running hot, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10. 57% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well above the Maricopa County average of 46.0%.

The voucher gap is 19.4%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. SNAP participation runs 5.5% against 15.2% nationally. Food insecurity runs 8.6% against 17.8% nationally.

It sits 0.7 points below the Maricopa County average of 3.7. That is riskier than roughly 20% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.

At 8% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 1.3/10.

Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured. Poverty sits at 2%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap. Annual rent works out to 19% of average household income of $149,737.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 04013422647

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013422647?

Census tract 04013422647 in the Eastmark neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 04013422647?

Median gross rent is $2,329/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 57% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 04013422647?

2.0% of residents in tract 04013422647 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 8,076.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 04013422647?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 3th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 12th, household 21th, minority 59th, housing 0th.
Q5

Is tract 04013422647 considered part of Eastmark?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013422647 fall within Eastmark (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 04013422647 struggle to pay rent?

About 7.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 04013422647 compare to Mesa overall?

Tract 04013422647 scores 3/10, right in line with the parent city of Mesa at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Mesa eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Mesa

Top eight tracts in Mesa ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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