Skip to content
Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally

Carrizal Eviction Risk: Lower , Chandler

Tract 04013523103 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 6,582 · neighborhood within 1.0 mi

With a score of 3/10, tract 04013523103 in the Carrizal area of Chandler, AZ reads lower for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 6,582 residents. Pulling hardest the other way is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10.

Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 39% Stable renters 28% Owners 33%
Tract context
Occupied units2,431
Renter share67.0%
SVI overall0.77
Poverty rate4.6%
Median income$77,853

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 3 tracts In Carrizal
Moderate
Within parent city
38 th percentile
Rank, 38th percentileLowHigh
#38 of 61 tracts In Chandler
Low
Within county
16 th percentile
Rank, 16th percentileLowHigh
#853 of 1,009 tracts In Maricopa
Very Low
Within state
40 th percentile
Rank, 40th percentileLowHigh
#1,065 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Chandler and the region

Centroid at 33.2987, -111.8676 · click any tract to drill in

Why Carrizal scores 3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Chandler
3.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
4.6% poverty · this tract
1.2
Supply constraint
$1,690 rent vs county FMR
3.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Chandler
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Chandler
2.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Chandler
2.0

How Carrizal compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Carrizal risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 3.03.0This tracttract 523103Chandler: 3.23.2Chandlerparent cityCounty: 3.73.7Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.83.8Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 77

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 884Total filings over 5 yrs
  • 14.02%Avg annual filing rate
  • 20.6%Peak (2001)
  • 115Filings in 2005 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2001 to 2005
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 040135231032001: 253 filings (20.62/100 renter HHs)2002: 246 filings (20.05/100 renter HHs)2003: 144 filings (11.74/100 renter HHs)2004: 126 filings (10.27/100 renter HHs)2005: 115 filings (7.41/100 renter HHs)
Filings dropped 55% over the past 5 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Carrizal. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Carrizal

Cost burden runs 59% here against 46.0% across Maricopa County. Running hot, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10.

On the softer side, economic stress reads 1.2/10. 67% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.

The severe-burden share is 19%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. Court records carry 884 eviction filings across 5 observed years.

SNAP participation runs 7.3% against 15.2% nationally. Against the Maricopa County average of 3.7, this tract reads safer for landlords by 0.7 points. Average gross rent is $1,690, 11% below the Chandler average.

Filings peaked in 2001 at 20.6% of renter households. In a typical year about 14.0% of renter households face a filing.

On the national scale it lands near the 20th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 7.9/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 04013523103

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013523103?

Census tract 04013523103 in the Carrizal neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 04013523103?

Median gross rent is $1,690/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 59% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 04013523103?

4.6% of residents in tract 04013523103 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,582.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 04013523103?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 77th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 44th, household 57th, minority 70th, housing 99th.
Q5

Is tract 04013523103 considered part of Carrizal?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013523103 fall within Carrizal (neighborhood centroid within 1.0 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013523103?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 884 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 04013523103 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 14.02% of renter households, peaking at 20.6% in 2001. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 04013523103 struggle to pay rent?

About 9.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 04013523103 compare to Chandler overall?

Tract 04013523103 scores 3/10, right in line with the parent city of Chandler at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Chandler eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Chandler

Top eight tracts in Chandler ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

Related