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Neighborhood · Chandler, AZ

Carrizal Eviction Risk: Moderate

3 census tracts · pop 19,831 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 4.9/10 · range 4.8–5.1

Carrizal is a white-hispanic neighborhood in Chandler with 3 census tracts and a population of 19,831 residents. The neighborhood's pop-weighted eviction-risk score of 4.9/10 (Moderate tier) blends state law, county-level filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty. 59% of renters here pay at least 30% of household income on rent, and 23% are severely cost-burdened (≥50% of income). Median gross rent of $1,662/month sits 13% lower than the Chandler citywide median ($1,902).

Risk score
4.9
Moderate
3 tracts · population-weighted
Carrizal vs Chandler How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
% of income on rent
58.7% +107%
Chandler: 28.4%
Average gross rent
$1,662 -13%
Chandler: $1,902
Average HH income
$81,088 -22%
Chandler: $103,691
Poverty rate
9.4% +23%
Chandler: 7.7%
Renter share
54.0% +54%
Chandler: 35.0%
Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Carrizal and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 3 tracts span score 4.8–5.1

Why Carrizal scores 4.9

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly
State political climate
legislature & governorship · Range 2.2–2.2 across tracts
2.2
Regional political climate
County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 5.1–5.1 across tracts
5.1
Local political climate
Parent city governance · Range 3.0–3.0 across tracts
3.0
Rent control risk
59% of income on rent · Range 1.0–1.0 across tracts
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 2.5–2.5 across tracts
2.5
Tenant organizing strength
54% renter households · Range 2.0–2.0 across tracts
2.0
Housing court bias
County bench composition · Range 2.0–2.0 across tracts
2.0
Economic stress
9.4% below poverty line · Range 1.2–4.0 across tracts
2.3
Supply constraint
Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 2.9–4.1 across tracts
3.5
Risk score comparison

Carrizal vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Carrizal score vs. parent city, state, U.S.Carrizal: 4.94.9CarrizalNeighborhoodParent city: 2.72.7Parent cityhost cityState: 4.04.0Stateavg in stateU.S.: 5.35.3U.S.national avgU.S. avg = 5.0
Variance across tracts

How uniformly does eviction risk play out in Carrizal?

Left: distribution of constituent tract scores. Right: every tract as a heat square — click to drill in.

Score distribution
0246810
Spread of 0.3 points from 4.8 to 5.1. Tracts are relatively uniform — conditions feel similar throughout the neighborhood.
Tracts as heat grid
Each square = one census tract. Color tracks the same green→red ramp as the chloropleth map above.
Census tracts

3 tracts in Carrizal

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract Score Pop % over 30% on rent Average rent
04013523104 5.1 7,132 69% $1,532
04013523103 4.8 6,582 59% $1,690
04013811900 4.8 6,117 47% $1,782
Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 59

Pop-weighted across 3 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 43%ile
Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden
Household characteristics 47%ile
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority 70%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport 70%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in Carrizal

Aggregated across 3 validated constituent tracts. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 2,818Total filings (sum)
  • 51.84%Avg annual filing rate
  • 212.0%Peak year (2004)
  • 13.09%Latest filed (2005)
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Carrizal

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

Frequently asked

About Carrizal

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for Carrizal?

Carrizal scores 4.9/10 (Moderate tier) across 3 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.

Q2

How does Carrizal compare to Chandler overall?

Carrizal scores 2.2 points higher than Chandler overall (2.7/10). Renters spend 59% of income on rent vs 28% citywide. Median rent: $1,662 vs $1,902.

Q3

What is the average rent in Carrizal?

Median gross rent in Carrizal is $1,662/month (pop-weighted across 3 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 59% of renter households are cost-burdened.

Q4

What percentage of Carrizal residents are renters?

54% of Carrizal households are renter-occupied (vs 35% in Chandler). The neighborhood has 19,831 residents.

Q5

Is Carrizal a high social-vulnerability area?

Carrizal sits in the 59th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (moderately vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.

Q6

Which tracts in Carrizal have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in Carrizal is census tract 04013523104 (score 5.1/10). Across the 3 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 4.8 to 5.1 — a spread of 0.3 points.

Q7

How safe is Carrizal for landlords?

Carrizal carries a moderate-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (4.9/10). Pop-weighted across 3 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Chandler as a whole (2.7/10), this neighborhood is higher-risk.

Q8

What is the demographic breakdown of Carrizal?

Carrizal has 18,573 residents (White-Hispanic Neighborhood). Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (44.6%), Hispanic / Latino (27.1%), Other / Multiracial (10.5%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.

Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Carrizal

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Chandler

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Carrizal.

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