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Census Tract · Ranked #41,206 of 84,120 nationally

Tucson Eviction Risk: Moderate

Tract 04019003003 · Pima, AZ · pop 4,088

Census tract 04019003003 covers part of Tucson, AZ, and scores 4.5/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 4,088 residents. Pulling hardest the other way is rent-regulation exposure at 1.5/10.

Risk score
4.5
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 26% Stable renters 48% Owners 26%
Tract context
Occupied units2,246
Renter share74.4%
SVI overall0.80
Poverty rate15.5%
Median income$52,127

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within parent city
46 th percentile
Rank, 46th percentileLowHigh
#78 of 143 tracts In Tucson
Moderate
Within county
66 th percentile
Rank, 66th percentileLowHigh
#92 of 270 tracts In Pima
Elevated
Within state
73 th percentile
Rank, 73rd percentileLowHigh
#471 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
Elevated
National
51 th percentile
Rank, 51st percentileLowHigh
#41,206 of 84,120 tracts In U.S.
Moderate
Geographic context

Risk heat across Tucson and the region

Centroid at 32.2472, -110.8662 · click any tract to drill in

Why Tucson scores 4.5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Tucson
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.9
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
15.5% poverty · this tract
3.9
Supply constraint
$948 rent vs county FMR
1.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Tucson
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Tucson
5.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Tucson
4.5

How Tucson compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Tucson risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 4.54.5This tracttract 003003Tucson: 3.83.8Tucsonparent cityCounty: 3.93.9Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.83.8Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 80

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 2,957Total filings over 12 yrs
  • 16.95%Avg annual filing rate
  • 24.6%Peak (2008)
  • 277Filings in 2017 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2004 to 2017
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 040190030032004: 232 filings (17.82/100 renter HHs)2005: 187 filings (15.24/100 renter HHs)2006: 242 filings (19.72/100 renter HHs)2007: 286 filings (23.31/100 renter HHs)2008: 302 filings (24.61/100 renter HHs)2009: 238 filings (19.40/100 renter HHs)2010: 205 filings (13.01/100 renter HHs)2011: 231 filings (12.60/100 renter HHs)2012: 250 filings (13.64/100 renter HHs)2013: 250 filings (13.64/100 renter HHs)2016: 257 filings (14.63/100 renter HHs)2017: 277 filings (15.77/100 renter HHs)
Filings climbed 19% over the past 12 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Tucson

74% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 8.4/10. Cost burden runs 35% here against 43.8% across Pima County.

Well under the midpoint, supply constraint reads 1.9/10. 12% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

At $948 a month, rents run 17% under what the rest of Tucson commands. The filing record is not thin: 2,957 evictions over 12 years of observation.

Against the Pima County average of 3.9, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 0.6 points. Filings peaked in 2008 at 24.6% of renter households. In a typical year about 16.9% of renter households face a filing.

Nationally it ranks #41,206 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. Social vulnerability reads 8.2/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.

Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 04019003003

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04019003003?

Census tract 04019003003 in Tucson scores 4.5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 04019003003?

Median gross rent is $948/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 35% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 04019003003?

15.5% of residents in tract 04019003003 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,088.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 04019003003?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 80th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 42th, household 92th, minority 62th, housing 95th.
Q5

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04019003003?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 2,957 eviction filings across 12 validated years in tract 04019003003 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 16.95% of renter households, peaking at 24.6% in 2008. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6

What share of households in tract 04019003003 struggle to pay rent?

About 10.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 04019003003 compare to Tucson overall?

Tract 04019003003 scores 4.5/10, higher than the parent city of Tucson at 3.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Tucson eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Tucson

Top eight tracts in Tucson ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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