Census Tract · Ranked #41,206 of 84,120 nationally

Tucson Eviction Risk: Moderate

Tract 04019002507 · Pima, AZ · pop 2,826 · 91% of tract blocks fall in Tucson

Tract 04019002507 sits in Tucson eviction risk, AZ, carrying an eviction-risk score of 4.5/10. It is home to 2,826 residents. The main counterweight is rent-regulation exposure at 1.5/10.

Risk score

4.5

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 22% Stable renters 23% Owners 55%

Tract context

Occupied units1,115

Renter share44.8%

SVI overall0.98

Poverty rate17.6%

Median income$59,275

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Tucson and the region

Centroid at 32.1294, -111.0019 · click any tract to drill in

Why Tucson scores 4.5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Tucson

7.0

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.9

State political climate

Arizona legislature & governorship

2.2

Economic stress

17.6% poverty · this tract

4.4

Supply constraint

$1,014 rent vs county FMR

2.4

Rent control risk

Inherited from Tucson

1.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

4.0

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Tucson

5.5

Housing court bias

Inherited from Tucson

4.5

How Tucson compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 98

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

84%Socioeconomic
99%Household composition
86%Racial/ethnic minority
95%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

17.4%Housing insecurity
10.6%Utility-shutoff threat
22.5%Food insecurity
15.2%SNAP enrollment
12.2%Transit barriers
21.1%No health insurance
17.4%Frequent mental distress
37.0%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Tucson

Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 8.4/10. 18% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

Well under the midpoint, state political climate reads 2.2/10. Adults with no health insurance runs 21.1% against 11.3% nationally.

Against Pima County at 43.8%, 49% of renters here are cost-burdened. Average gross rent is $1,014, 11% below the Tucson average.

Against the Pima County average of 3.9, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 0.6 points. On the national scale it lands near the 51st percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 9.8/10.

Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured. Annual rent works out to 21% of average household income of $59,275.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 04019002507

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04019002507?

Census tract 04019002507 in Tucson scores 4.5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 04019002507?

Median gross rent is $1,014/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 49% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 04019002507?

17.6% of residents in tract 04019002507 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,826.

How socially vulnerable is tract 04019002507?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 98th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 84th, household 99th, minority 86th, housing 95th.

What share of households in tract 04019002507 struggle to pay rent?

About 17.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 04019002507 compare to Tucson overall?

Tract 04019002507 scores 4.5/10, higher than the parent city of Tucson at 3.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Tucson eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Tucson

Top eight tracts in Tucson ranked by composite eviction-risk score.