Census Tract · Ranked #41,206 of 84,120 nationally
Tucson Eviction Risk: Moderate
Tract 04019004070 ·
Pima, AZ · pop 2,875
Tract 04019004070 sits in Tucson eviction risk, AZ, carrying an eviction-risk score of 4.5/10. 25% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Risk score
4.5
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 40%Stable renters 33%Owners 27%
Tract context
Occupied units1,428
Renter share72.5%
SVI overall0.93
Poverty rate13.4%
Median income$43,584
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within parent city
45th percentile
#79 of 143 tracts In Tucson
Moderate
Within county
67th percentile
#91 of 270 tracts In Pima
Elevated
Within state
73th percentile
#471 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
Elevated
National
51th percentile
#41,206 of 84,120 tracts In U.S.
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across Tucson and the region
Centroid at 32.2138, -110.8106 · click any tract to drill in
Why Tucson scores 4.5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Tucson
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.9
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
13.4% poverty · this tract
3.3
Supply constraint
$1,078 rent vs county FMR
2.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Tucson
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Tucson
5.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Tucson
4.5
How Tucson compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 93
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
93%Socioeconomic
64%Household composition
59%Racial/ethnic minority
95%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
15.3%Housing insecurity
11.4%Utility-shutoff threat
21.1%Food insecurity
18.3%SNAP enrollment
12.6%Transit barriers
13.6%No health insurance
20.5%Frequent mental distress
37.7%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Tucson
Pulling hardest the other way is rent-regulation exposure at 1.5/10. 55% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well above the Pima County average of 43.8%. 72% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.
Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 8.4/10. Well under the midpoint, state political climate reads 2.2/10. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 1,765 filings here across 12 tracked years.
It sits 0.6 points above the Pima County average of 3.9. The worst year on record was 2005, when 43.6% of renter households were served.
In a typical year about 21.6% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 51% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 9.3/10.
Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured. Average gross rent is $1,078, close to the Tucson average. Annual rent works out to 30% of average household income of $43,584.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 04019004070
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04019004070?
Census tract 04019004070 in Tucson scores 4.5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04019004070?
Median gross rent is $1,078/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 55% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04019004070?
13.4% of residents in tract 04019004070 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,875.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04019004070?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 93th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 93th, household 64th, minority 59th, housing 95th.
Q5
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04019004070?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 1,765 eviction filings across 12 validated years in tract 04019004070 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 21.60% of renter households, peaking at 43.6% in 2005. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6
What share of households in tract 04019004070 struggle to pay rent?
About 15.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 11.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 04019004070 compare to Tucson overall?
Tract 04019004070 scores 4.5/10, higher than the parent city of Tucson at 3.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Tucson eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Tucson
Top eight tracts in Tucson ranked by composite eviction-risk score.