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Census Tract · Ranked #41,206 of 84,120 nationally

Tucson Eviction Risk: Moderate

Tract 04019004070 · Pima, AZ · pop 2,875

Tract 04019004070 sits in Tucson eviction risk, AZ, carrying an eviction-risk score of 4.5/10. 25% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

Risk score
4.5
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 40% Stable renters 33% Owners 27%
Tract context
Occupied units1,428
Renter share72.5%
SVI overall0.93
Poverty rate13.4%
Median income$43,584

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within parent city
45 th percentile
Rank, 45th percentileLowHigh
#79 of 143 tracts In Tucson
Moderate
Within county
67 th percentile
Rank, 67th percentileLowHigh
#91 of 270 tracts In Pima
Elevated
Within state
73 th percentile
Rank, 73rd percentileLowHigh
#471 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
Elevated
National
51 th percentile
Rank, 51st percentileLowHigh
#41,206 of 84,120 tracts In U.S.
Moderate
Geographic context

Risk heat across Tucson and the region

Centroid at 32.2138, -110.8106 · click any tract to drill in

Why Tucson scores 4.5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Tucson
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.9
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
13.4% poverty · this tract
3.3
Supply constraint
$1,078 rent vs county FMR
2.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Tucson
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Tucson
5.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Tucson
4.5

How Tucson compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Tucson risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 4.54.5This tracttract 004070Tucson: 3.83.8Tucsonparent cityCounty: 3.93.9Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.83.8Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 93

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 1,765Total filings over 12 yrs
  • 21.60%Avg annual filing rate
  • 43.6%Peak (2005)
  • 107Filings in 2017 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2004 to 2017
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 040190040702004: 131 filings (21.20/100 renter HHs)2005: 232 filings (43.61/100 renter HHs)2006: 196 filings (36.84/100 renter HHs)2007: 140 filings (26.32/100 renter HHs)2008: 171 filings (32.14/100 renter HHs)2009: 146 filings (27.44/100 renter HHs)2010: 114 filings (11.53/100 renter HHs)2011: 121 filings (11.29/100 renter HHs)2012: 150 filings (13.99/100 renter HHs)2013: 161 filings (15.02/100 renter HHs)2016: 96 filings (9.35/100 renter HHs)2017: 107 filings (10.42/100 renter HHs)
Filings dropped 18% over the past 12 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Tucson

Pulling hardest the other way is rent-regulation exposure at 1.5/10. 55% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well above the Pima County average of 43.8%. 72% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.

Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 8.4/10. Well under the midpoint, state political climate reads 2.2/10. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 1,765 filings here across 12 tracked years.

It sits 0.6 points above the Pima County average of 3.9. The worst year on record was 2005, when 43.6% of renter households were served.

In a typical year about 21.6% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 51% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 9.3/10.

Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured. Average gross rent is $1,078, close to the Tucson average. Annual rent works out to 30% of average household income of $43,584.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 04019004070

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04019004070?

Census tract 04019004070 in Tucson scores 4.5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 04019004070?

Median gross rent is $1,078/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 55% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 04019004070?

13.4% of residents in tract 04019004070 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,875.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 04019004070?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 93th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 93th, household 64th, minority 59th, housing 95th.
Q5

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04019004070?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 1,765 eviction filings across 12 validated years in tract 04019004070 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 21.60% of renter households, peaking at 43.6% in 2005. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6

What share of households in tract 04019004070 struggle to pay rent?

About 15.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 11.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 04019004070 compare to Tucson overall?

Tract 04019004070 scores 4.5/10, higher than the parent city of Tucson at 3.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Tucson eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Tucson

Top eight tracts in Tucson ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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