Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #39,308 of 84,120 nationally
South Fort Smith Eviction Risk: Moderate
Tract 05131001202 · Sebastian County, AR · pop 2,599 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi
05131001202 is a census tract in the South Fort Smith area of Fort Smith, AR. It scores 4.6/10 for landlords. The clearest offset is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10.
Risk score
4.6
Moderate
Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 25%
Stable renters 32%
Owners 43%
Tract context
Occupied units1,150
Renter share57.2%
SVI overall0.98
Poverty rate31.3%
Median income$41,250
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
91
th percentile
Very High
Within county
93
th percentile
Very High
Within state
81
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Fort Smith and the region
Centroid at 35.3314, -94.4128 · click any tract to drill in
Why South Fort Smith scores 4.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Fort Smith
3.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
3.2
State political climate
Arkansas legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
31.3% poverty · this tract
7.8
Supply constraint
$753 rent vs county FMR
3.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Fort Smith
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Fort Smith
2.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Fort Smith
1.5
How South Fort Smith compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 98
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 97%Socioeconomic
- 89%Household composition
- 57%Racial/ethnic minority
- 99%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within South Fort Smith. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 18.6%Housing insecurity
- 14.5%Utility-shutoff threat
- 25.3%Food insecurity
- 17.7%SNAP enrollment
- 13.3%Transit barriers
- 14.6%No health insurance
- 22.1%Frequent mental distress
- 42.6%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in South Fort Smith
Well under the midpoint, state political climate reads 1.5/10. The poverty rate is 31%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.
Severe burden reaches 20%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. On the softer side, housing-court posture reads 1.5/10.
It sits 1.0 points above the Sebastian County average of 3.6. At $753 a month, rents run 15% under what the rest of Fort Smith commands. Cost burden runs 43% here against 38.9% across Sebastian County.
Food insecurity runs 25.3% against 17.8% nationally. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 14.5% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. That is riskier than roughly 53% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
Social vulnerability reads 9.8/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured. Annual rent works out to 22% of average household income of $41,250.
57% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 05131001202
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 05131001202?
Census tract 05131001202 in the South Fort Smith neighborhood scores 4.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 05131001202?
Median gross rent is $753/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 43% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 05131001202?
31.3% of residents in tract 05131001202 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,599.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 05131001202?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 98th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 97th, household 89th, minority 57th, housing 99th.
Q5
Is tract 05131001202 considered part of South Fort Smith?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 05131001202 fall within South Fort Smith (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 05131001202 struggle to pay rent?
About 18.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 14.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 05131001202 compare to Fort Smith overall?
Tract 05131001202 scores 4.6/10, higher than the parent city of Fort Smith at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Fort Smith eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Fort Smith
Top eight tracts in Fort Smith ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · AR
05131000800
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AR
05131001001
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AR
05131000100
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AR
05131000400
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AR
05131000501
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AR
05131000200
4.5
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AR
05131000300
4.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AR
05131000502
4
/ 10 · Moderate
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