Castro Valley Eviction Risk: Moderate

The severe-burden share is 24%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. It sits 2.0 points below the Alameda County average of 7.8. On the high side, local political climate reads 8.3/10.

At $3,170 a month, rents run 24% over what the rest of Castro Valley commands. Running hot, regional political climate reads 8.1/10.

The voucher gap is 18.2%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. Cost burden runs about half here against 45.5% across Alameda County. Food insecurity runs 10.3% against 17.8% nationally.

On the national scale it lands near the 76th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. At 18% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. Social vulnerability reads 3.5/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.

Statewide the CA average is 7.5, so this tract runs 1.7 points cooler. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.