Skip to content
Neighborhood · Ranked #3,082 of 84,120 nationally

Canal Eviction Risk: High , San Rafael

Tract 06041112203 · Marin, CA · pop 2,498 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi

Tract 06041112203 sits in the Canal area of San Rafael, CA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 9.3/10. It is home to 2,498 residents. Severe burden reaches 40%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.

Risk score
9.3
High
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 76% Stable renters 21% Owners 3%
Tract context
Occupied units455
Renter share96.5%
SVI overall0.82
Poverty rate22.8%
Median income$66,080

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
67 th percentile
Rank, 67th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 4 tracts In Canal
Elevated
Within parent city
92 th percentile
Rank, 92nd percentileLowHigh
#2 of 14 tracts In San Rafael
Very High
Within county
98 th percentile
Rank, 98th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 62 tracts In Marin
Very High
Within state
85 th percentile
Rank, 85th percentileLowHigh
#1,347 of 9,109 tracts In California
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across San Rafael and the region

Centroid at 37.9647, -122.5036 · click any tract to drill in

Why Canal scores 9.3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from San Rafael
8.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.3
State political climate
California legislature & governorship
6.8
Economic stress
22.8% poverty · this tract
5.7
Supply constraint
$2,318 rent vs county FMR
2.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from San Rafael
8.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
6.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from San Rafael
9.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from San Rafael
6.9

How Canal compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Canal risk score vs. parent city / county / state9.3This tracttract 1122037.9San Rafaelparent city7.3Countyavg tract in county7.5Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 82

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Canal. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Canal

Cost burden runs 78% here against 51.0% across Marin County. Food insecurity runs 48.9% against 17.8% nationally.

Housing insecurity runs 38.6% against 14.2% nationally. 96% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. Annualized rent equals 42% of average household income of $66,080, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with.

The score leans hardest on tenant-organizing strength at 9/10. On the softer side, court filing pressure reads 1.1/10. Against the Marin County average of 7.3, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 2.0 points.

Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 8.5/10. The poverty rate is 23%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest.

That is riskier than roughly 96% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 8.4/10.

Statewide the CA average is 7.5, so this tract runs 1.8 points hotter.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 06041112203

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06041112203?

Census tract 06041112203 in the Canal neighborhood scores 9.3/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 06041112203?

Median gross rent is $2,318/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 78% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 06041112203?

22.8% of residents in tract 06041112203 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,498.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 06041112203?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 82th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 79th, household 76th, minority 98th, housing 61th.
Q5

Is tract 06041112203 considered part of Canal?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 06041112203 fall within Canal (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 06041112203 struggle to pay rent?

About 38.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 19.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 06041112203 compare to San Rafael overall?

Tract 06041112203 scores 9.3/10, higher than the parent city of San Rafael at 7.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from San Rafael; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in San Rafael

Top eight tracts in San Rafael ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

Related