Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #3,082 of 84,120 nationally
Canal Eviction Risk: High , San Rafael
Tract 06041112202 · Marin, CA · pop 5,808 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi
With a score of 9.3/10, tract 06041112202 in the Canal area of San Rafael, CA reads high for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 5,808 residents. The severe-burden share is 29%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
9.3
High
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 37%
Stable renters 33%
Owners 30%
Tract context
Occupied units1,444
Renter share69.7%
SVI overall0.76
Poverty rate17.1%
Median income$100,556
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
97
th percentile
Very High
Within state
85
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across San Rafael and the region
Centroid at 37.9559, -122.4939 · click any tract to drill in
Why Canal scores 9.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from San Rafael
8.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.3
State political climate
California legislature & governorship
6.8
Economic stress
17.1% poverty · this tract
4.3
Supply constraint
$2,504 rent vs county FMR
2.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from San Rafael
8.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
6.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from San Rafael
9.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from San Rafael
6.9
How Canal compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 76
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 61%Socioeconomic
- 62%Household composition
- 88%Racial/ethnic minority
- 82%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Canal. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 21.5%Housing insecurity
- 10.3%Utility-shutoff threat
- 26.7%Food insecurity
- 23.0%SNAP enrollment
- 12.9%Transit barriers
- 19.3%No health insurance
- 17.8%Frequent mental distress
- 35.3%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Canal
What pushes it up most is tenant-organizing strength at 9/10. Well under the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 1.1/10.
It sits 2.0 points above the Marin County average of 7.3. This is renter territory: 70% of occupied units are tenant-occupied. Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 8.5/10.
SNAP participation runs 23.0% against 15.2% nationally. Housing insecurity runs 21.5% against 14.2% nationally.
On the national scale it lands near the 96th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. Social vulnerability reads 7.9/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Statewide the CA average is 7.5, so this tract runs 1.8 points hotter.
Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured. Rent takes 30% or more of income for 53% of renters.
Average gross rent is $2,504, close to the San Rafael average. Annual rent works out to 30% of average household income of $100,556.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 06041112202
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06041112202?
Census tract 06041112202 in the Canal neighborhood scores 9.3/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 06041112202?
Median gross rent is $2,504/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 53% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 06041112202?
17.1% of residents in tract 06041112202 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,808.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 06041112202?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 76th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 61th, household 62th, minority 88th, housing 82th.
Q5
Is tract 06041112202 considered part of Canal?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 06041112202 fall within Canal (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 06041112202 struggle to pay rent?
About 21.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 06041112202 compare to San Rafael overall?
Tract 06041112202 scores 9.3/10, higher than the parent city of San Rafael at 7.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from San Rafael; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in San Rafael
Top eight tracts in San Rafael ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · CA
Canal
9.3
/ 10 · Very High
Tract · CA
Canal
9.3
/ 10 · Very High
Tract · CA
06041106001
9.2
/ 10 · Very High
Tract · CA
Terra Linda
9.1
/ 10 · Very High
Tract · CA
Canal
9
/ 10 · Very High
Tract · CA
Dominican
8.8
/ 10 · High
Tract · CA
Terra Linda
8.7
/ 10 · High
Tract · CA
Dominican
8.6
/ 10 · High
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