Neighborhood · Ranked #11,930 of 84,120 nationally

Canal Eviction Risk: Elevated , San Rafael

Tract 06041112202 · Marin, CA · pop 5,808 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi

In Canal in San Rafael, census tract 06041112202 scores $1/10 for eviction risk. On the national scale it ranks #20,145 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 53% of renter households, a severe level, and 29% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $2,504 monthly, set against $100,556 in average yearly household income, roughly 30% of income at the averages. About 70% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score

Elevated

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 37% Stable renters 33% Owners 30%

Tract context

Occupied units1,444

Renter share69.7%

SVI overall0.76

Poverty rate17.1%

Median income$100,556

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across San Rafael and the region

Centroid at 37.9559, -122.4939 · click any tract to drill in

Why Canal scores 6

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from San Rafael

8.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

8.3

State political climate

California legislature & governorship

6.8

Economic stress

17.1% poverty · this tract

4.3

Supply constraint

$2,504 rent vs county FMR

2.5

Rent control risk

Inherited from San Rafael

8.3

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

6.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from San Rafael

9.0

Housing court bias

Inherited from San Rafael

6.9

How Canal compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 76

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

61%Socioeconomic
62%Household composition
88%Racial/ethnic minority
82%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Canal. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

21.5%Housing insecurity
10.3%Utility-shutoff threat
26.7%Food insecurity
23.0%SNAP enrollment
12.9%Transit barriers
19.3%No health insurance
17.8%Frequent mental distress
35.3%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Canal

What moves this score most is tenant organizing strength at $1/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from San Rafael, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Marin County average of 5.4 and in line with the California statewide average of 6.1. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is predominantly Hispanic or Latino and ranks around the 76th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

In CDC survey modeling, about 21.5% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 10.3% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 06041112202

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06041112202?

Census tract 06041112202 in the Canal neighborhood scores 6/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 06041112202?

Median gross rent is $2,504/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 53% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 06041112202?

17.1% of residents in tract 06041112202 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,808.

How socially vulnerable is tract 06041112202?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 76th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 61th, household 62th, minority 88th, housing 82th.

Is tract 06041112202 considered part of Canal?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 06041112202 fall within Canal (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 06041112202 struggle to pay rent?

About 21.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 06041112202 compare to San Rafael overall?

Tract 06041112202 scores 6/10, lower than the parent city of San Rafael at 8.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from San Rafael; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in San Rafael

Top eight tracts in San Rafael ranked by composite eviction-risk score.