4 census tracts · pop 16,924 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 9.2/10
· range 9–9.3
Canal spans 4 census tracts of San Rafael, CA, population 16,924. The Eviction Risk Score is 9.2/10, in the High tier. Against a San Rafael baseline of 36.0%, 61% of renters here cross the 30%-of-income line.
32% are severely burdened, paying half their income or more in rent. That cohort has no absorption capacity for an unexpected bill, and it is where non-payment filings originate. The strongest single driver of the headline number is tenant-organizing strength at 9/10.
This is a renter market: 76% of occupied units are tenant-occupied. Running hot is rent-regulation exposure at 8.3/10. CDC survey data puts housing insecurity at 27.2% of adults, against 14.2% nationally.
SNAP participation is 30.7% of households versus 15.2% nationally. On the softer side is supply constraint, at 1.9/10.
The poverty rate is 19%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than the filing statistics suggest. The closest comparables inside the same city are Dominican and Terra Linda. Social vulnerability runs high at 7.9/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input.
Its 4 tracts score within 0.3 points of one another, so the area figure travels well to individual addresses. Average gross rent runs $2,261, close to the San Rafael average.
The area figure travels well to individual addresses here, though the per-tract table below still carries the detail. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.
Risk score
9.2
High
4 tracts · population-weighted
Canal vs San RafaelHow this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority82%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport79%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted
Eviction-adjacent indicators in Canal
Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.
25.4%Housing insecurity
12.8%Utility shutoff threat
31.5%Food insecurity
28.4%SNAP enrollment
22.7%No health insurance
37.3%Any disability
Frequently asked
About Canal
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for Canal?
Canal scores 9.2/10 (High tier) across 4 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2
How does Canal compare to San Rafael overall?
Canal scores 1.3 points higher than San Rafael overall (7.9/10). Renters spend 61% of income on rent vs 36% citywide. Average rent: $2,261 vs $2,377.
Q3
What is the average rent in Canal?
Average gross rent in Canal is $2,261/month (pop-weighted across 4 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 61% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4
What percentage of Canal residents are renters?
76% of Canal households are renter-occupied (vs 47% in San Rafael). The neighborhood has 16,924 residents.
Q5
Is Canal a high social-vulnerability area?
Canal sits in the 77th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (highly vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6
Which tracts in Canal have the highest eviction risk?
The highest-risk constituent tract in Canal is census tract 06041112202 (score 9.3/10). Across the 4 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 9 to 9.3, a spread of 0.3 points.
Q7
How safe is Canal for landlords?
Canal carries a high-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (9.2/10). Pop-weighted across 4 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to San Rafael as a whole (7.9/10), this neighborhood is higher-risk.
Q8
What is the demographic breakdown of Canal?
Canal has 17,195 residents. Top groups: Hispanic / Latino (70.3%), White (non-Hispanic) (22%), Other / Multiracial (3.7%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
