Skip to content
Neighborhood · San Rafael, CA

Canal Eviction Risk: Elevated

4 census tracts · pop 16,924 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 6.4/10 · range 5.7–7.2

Canal is a hispanic / latino neighborhood in San Rafael with 4 census tracts and a population of 16,924 residents. The neighborhood's pop-weighted eviction-risk score of 6.4/10 (Elevated tier) blends state law, county-level filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty. 61% of renters here pay at least 30% of household income on rent, and 32% are severely cost-burdened (≥50% of income). Average gross rent of $2,261/month sits 5% lower than the San Rafael citywide average ($2,377).

Risk score
6.4
Elevated
4 tracts · population-weighted
Canal vs San Rafael How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
% of income on rent
60.6% +68%
San Rafael: 36.0%
Average gross rent
$2,261 -5%
San Rafael: $2,377
Average HH income
$85,939 -21%
San Rafael: $109,317
Poverty rate
18.9% +74%
San Rafael: 10.9%
Renter share
75.9% +61%
San Rafael: 47.0%
Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Canal and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 4 tracts span score 5.7–7.2

Why Canal scores 6.4

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly
State political climate
legislature & governorship · Range 6.8–6.8 across tracts
6.8
Regional political climate
County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 8.3–8.3 across tracts
8.3
Local political climate
Parent city governance · Range 8.5–8.5 across tracts
8.5
Rent control risk
61% of income on rent · Range 8.3–8.3 across tracts
8.3
Eviction process difficulty
State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 6.5–6.5 across tracts
6.5
Tenant organizing strength
76% renter households · Range 9.0–9.0 across tracts
9.0
Housing court bias
County bench composition · Range 6.9–6.9 across tracts
6.9
Economic stress
18.9% below poverty line · Range 3.7–5.8 across tracts
4.7
Supply constraint
Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 1.0–2.5 across tracts
1.9
Risk score comparison

Canal vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Canal score vs. parent city, state, U.S.Canal: 6.46.4CanalNeighborhoodParent city: 8.38.3Parent cityhost cityState: 8.48.4Stateavg in stateU.S.: 4.74.7U.S.national avgU.S. avg = 5.0
Variance across tracts

How uniformly does eviction risk play out in Canal?

Left: distribution of constituent tract scores. Right: every tract as a heat square. Click any square to drill in.

Score distribution
0246810
Spread of 1.5 points from 5.7 to 7.2. Moderate variation across constituent tracts.
Tracts as heat grid
Each square = one census tract. Color tracks the same green→red ramp as the chloropleth map above.
Census tracts

4 tracts in Canal

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract Score Pop % over 30% on rent Average rent
06041112204 7.2 4,266 58% $1,824
06041112203 6.9 2,498 78% $2,318
06041112202 6 5,808 53% $2,504
06041112100 5.7 4,352 63% $2,332
Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 77

Pop-weighted across 4 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 66%ile
Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden
Household characteristics 68%ile
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority 82%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport 79%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Canal

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

Frequently asked

About Canal

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for Canal?

Canal scores 6.4/10 (Elevated tier) across 4 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2

How does Canal compare to San Rafael overall?

Canal scores 1.9 points lower than San Rafael overall (8.3/10). Renters spend 61% of income on rent vs 36% citywide. Average rent: $2,261 vs $2,377.
Q3

What is the average rent in Canal?

Average gross rent in Canal is $2,261/month (pop-weighted across 4 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 61% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4

What percentage of Canal residents are renters?

76% of Canal households are renter-occupied (vs 47% in San Rafael). The neighborhood has 16,924 residents.
Q5

Is Canal a high social-vulnerability area?

Canal sits in the 77th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (highly vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6

Which tracts in Canal have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in Canal is census tract 06041112204 (score 7.2/10). Across the 4 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 5.7 to 7.2, a spread of 1.5 points.
Q7

How safe is Canal for landlords?

Canal carries a elevated-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (6.4/10). Pop-weighted across 4 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to San Rafael as a whole (8.3/10), this neighborhood is lower-risk.
Q8

What is the demographic breakdown of Canal?

Canal has 17,195 residents (Hispanic / Latino Neighborhood). Top groups: Hispanic / Latino (70.3%), White (non-Hispanic) (22%), Other / Multiracial (3.7%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Canal

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside San Rafael

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Canal.

Zoom out

Up the geography chain · or explore further