Within parent city
30
th percentile
Low
Census Tract · Ranked #18,240 of 84,120 nationally
Modesto Eviction Risk: Moderate
Tract 06099000602 · Stanislaus, CA · pop 3,090 · 73% of tract blocks fall in Modesto
Modesto in Stanislaus County is where census tract 06099000602 sits, home to 3,090 residents. Its landlord eviction-risk score is 5.8/10. That is riskier than about 69% of US census tracts.
40% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a high level, and 28% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,650 a month against an average household income of $98,276 a year, roughly 20% of income at the averages. About 23% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Risk score
5.5
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 9%
Stable renters 14%
Owners 77%
Tract context
Occupied units960
Renter share23.0%
SVI overall0.52
Poverty rate10.8%
Median income$98,276
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
38
th percentile
Low
Within state
48
th percentile
Moderate
National
78
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Modesto and the region
Centroid at 37.6546, -121.0306 · click any tract to drill in
Why Modesto scores 5.5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Modesto
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.0
State political climate
California legislature & governorship
6.8
Economic stress
10.8% poverty · this tract
2.7
Supply constraint
$1,650 rent vs county FMR
5.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Modesto
7.9
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
6.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Modesto
8.3
Housing court bias
Inherited from Modesto
7.0
How Modesto compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 52
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 51%Socioeconomic
- 56%Household composition
- 72%Racial/ethnic minority
- 35%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 16.9%Housing insecurity
- 8.5%Utility-shutoff threat
- 19.5%Food insecurity
- 17.5%SNAP enrollment
- 10.5%Transit barriers
- 12.9%No health insurance
- 18.7%Frequent mental distress
- 34.9%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Modesto
What moves this score most is tenant organizing strength at 8.3/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Modesto eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Stanislaus County average of 5.8 and in line with the California statewide average of 6.1. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
In CDC survey modeling, about 16.9% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 8.5% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
The tract is Hispanic or Latino and White and ranks around the 52nd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 06099000602
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06099000602?
Census tract 06099000602 in Modesto scores 5.5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 06099000602?
Median gross rent is $1,650/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 40% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 06099000602?
10.8% of residents in tract 06099000602 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,090.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 06099000602?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 52th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 51th, household 56th, minority 72th, housing 35th.
Q5
What share of households in tract 06099000602 struggle to pay rent?
About 16.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q6
How does tract 06099000602 compare to Modesto overall?
Tract 06099000602 scores 5.5/10, lower than the parent city of Modesto at 8.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Modesto eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Modesto
Top eight tracts in Modesto ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · CA
06099002100
8
/ 10 · High
Tract · CA
Shackelford
8
/ 10 · High
Tract · CA
Bystrom
8
/ 10 · High
Tract · CA
Shackelford
7.7
/ 10 · High
Tract · CA
Shackelford
7.5
/ 10 · High
Tract · CA
06099001700
7.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · CA
06099000910
7.2
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · CA
06099001601
7
/ 10 · Elevated
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