Census Tract · Ranked #17,650 of 84,120 nationally

Modesto Eviction Risk: Elevated

Tract 06099000806 · Stanislaus, CA · pop 4,406

06099000806 is a census tract in Modesto, CA. It scores 6.1/10 for landlords. Population here is 4,406. Against Stanislaus County at 47.5%, 61% of renters here are cost-burdened.

Risk score

6.1

Elevated

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 28% Stable renters 18% Owners 54%

Tract context

Occupied units1,639

Renter share45.1%

SVI overall0.74

Poverty rate6.6%

Median income$78,664

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Modesto and the region

Centroid at 37.6857, -121.0221 · click any tract to drill in

Why Modesto scores 6.1

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Modesto

5.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.0

State political climate

California legislature & governorship

6.8

Economic stress

6.6% poverty · this tract

1.6

Supply constraint

$1,674 rent vs county FMR

5.7

Rent control risk

Inherited from Modesto

7.9

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

6.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Modesto

8.3

Housing court bias

Inherited from Modesto

7.0

How Modesto compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 74

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

67%Socioeconomic
76%Household composition
73%Racial/ethnic minority
64%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

15.0%Housing insecurity
8.0%Utility-shutoff threat
17.2%Food insecurity
16.2%SNAP enrollment
9.5%Transit barriers
10.6%No health insurance
18.1%Frequent mental distress
34.7%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Modesto

24% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. The clearest offset is economic stress at 1.6/10. Running hot, tenant-organizing strength reads 8.3/10.

On the high side, rent-regulation exposure reads 7.9/10. Nationally it ranks #17,650 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

Social vulnerability reads 7.7/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Statewide the CA average is 7.5, so this tract runs 1.4 points cooler.

Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured. It tracks the Stanislaus County average of 6.5 closely. Average gross rent is $1,674, close to the Modesto average.

Annual rent works out to 26% of average household income of $78,664. 45% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 06099000806

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06099000806?

Census tract 06099000806 in Modesto scores 6.1/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 06099000806?

Median gross rent is $1,674/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 61% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 06099000806?

6.6% of residents in tract 06099000806 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,406.

How socially vulnerable is tract 06099000806?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 74th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 67th, household 76th, minority 73th, housing 64th.

What share of households in tract 06099000806 struggle to pay rent?

About 15.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 06099000806 compare to Modesto overall?

Tract 06099000806 scores 6.1/10, lower than the parent city of Modesto at 6.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Modesto eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Modesto

Top eight tracts in Modesto ranked by composite eviction-risk score.