Neighborhood · Ranked #7,836 of 84,120 nationally

Lower Mānoa Eviction Risk: High , Urban Honolulu

Tract 15003003414 · Honolulu County, HI · pop 4,690 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi

Census tract 15003003414 covers part of the Lower Mānoa area of Urban Honolulu, HI, and scores 8/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 4,690. The severe-burden share is 32%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Risk score

High

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 42% Stable renters 34% Owners 24%

Tract context

Occupied units2,396

Renter share76.0%

SVI overall0.82

Poverty rate15.8%

Median income$74,107

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Urban Honolulu and the region

Centroid at 21.3043, -157.8336 · click any tract to drill in

Why Lower Mānoa scores 8

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Urban Honolulu

6.7

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.3

State political climate

Hawaii legislature & governorship

5.5

Economic stress

15.8% poverty · this tract

3.9

Supply constraint

$1,613 rent vs county FMR

1.0

Rent control risk

Inherited from Urban Honolulu

7.3

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

5.0

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Urban Honolulu

9.2

Housing court bias

Inherited from Urban Honolulu

6.6

How Lower Mānoa compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 82

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

60%Socioeconomic
68%Household composition
87%Racial/ethnic minority
94%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Lower Mānoa. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

9.5%Housing insecurity
5.1%Utility-shutoff threat
15.9%Food insecurity
10.6%SNAP enrollment
6.7%Transit barriers
4.7%No health insurance
13.4%Frequent mental distress
28.9%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Lower Mānoa

The dominant input is tenant-organizing strength at 9.2/10. Running cool, supply constraint reads 1/10. It sits 2.0 points above the Honolulu County average of 6.0.

76% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. Well under the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 1.7/10. Cost burden runs 55% here against 50.9% across Honolulu County.

At $1,613 a month, rents run 12% under what the rest of Urban Honolulu commands. That is riskier than roughly 91% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Social vulnerability reads 8.4/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.

Statewide the HI average is 5.9, so this tract runs 2.1 points hotter. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured. Annual rent works out to 26% of average household income of $74,107.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 15003003414

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 15003003414?

Census tract 15003003414 in the Lower Mānoa neighborhood scores 8/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 15003003414?

Median gross rent is $1,613/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 55% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 15003003414?

15.8% of residents in tract 15003003414 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,690.

How socially vulnerable is tract 15003003414?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 82th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 60th, household 68th, minority 87th, housing 94th.

Is tract 15003003414 considered part of Lower Mānoa?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 15003003414 fall within Lower Mānoa (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 15003003414 struggle to pay rent?

About 9.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 15003003414 compare to Urban Honolulu overall?

Tract 15003003414 scores 8/10, higher than the parent city of Urban Honolulu at 6.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Urban Honolulu eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Urban Honolulu

Top eight tracts in Urban Honolulu ranked by composite eviction-risk score.