Neighborhood · Ranked #44,543 of 84,120 nationally

Churchill's Grove Eviction Risk: Lower , Rockford

Tract 17201003000 · Winnebago County, IL · pop 1,715 · neighborhood within 0.0 mi

In the Churchill's Grove neighborhood of Rockford, census tract 17201003000 scores 4.6/10 for eviction risk. That is riskier than about 26% of US census tracts.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 42% of renter households, a severe level, and 22% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,123 a month against an average household income of $80,774 a year, roughly 17% of income at the averages. Renters make up 36% of occupied homes.

Risk score

3.8

Lower

Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 15% Stable renters 21% Owners 64%

Tract context

Occupied units789

Renter share36.1%

SVI overall0.10

Poverty rate8.2%

Median income$80,774

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Rockford and the region

Centroid at 42.2840, -89.0766 · click any tract to drill in

Why Churchill's Grove scores 3.8

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Rockford

4.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.1

State political climate

Illinois legislature & governorship

5.2

Economic stress

8.2% poverty · this tract

2.1

Supply constraint

$1,123 rent vs county FMR

4.5

Rent control risk

Inherited from Rockford

2.0

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

3.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Rockford

3.0

Housing court bias

Inherited from Rockford

3.5

How Churchill's Grove compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 10

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

24%Socioeconomic
11%Household composition
34%Racial/ethnic minority
11%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: B: Still Desirable

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade B meant middle-class areas with mortgage access. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

15%Grade A
57%Grade B
5%Grade C
0%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Churchill's Grove. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

9.7%Housing insecurity
6.1%Utility-shutoff threat
10.9%Food insecurity
9.6%SNAP enrollment
6.2%Transit barriers
6.4%No health insurance
15.6%Frequent mental distress
25.5%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Churchill's Grove

The score leans hardest on supply constraint at 4.5/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Rockford eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Winnebago County average of 5.0 and below the Illinois statewide average of 5.4. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 10th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.

HOLC surveyors mapped this tract in the 1930s with a dominant grade of B ("Still Desirable"), above the redlined D tier. The grading still shaped decades of lending and development in the surrounding area.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 17201003000

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 17201003000?

Census tract 17201003000 in the Churchill's Grove neighborhood scores 3.8/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 17201003000?

Median gross rent is $1,123/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 42% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 17201003000?

8.2% of residents in tract 17201003000 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,715.

How socially vulnerable is tract 17201003000?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 10th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 24th, household 11th, minority 34th, housing 11th.

Is tract 17201003000 considered part of Churchill's Grove?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 17201003000 fall within Churchill's Grove (neighborhood centroid within 0.0 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 17201003000 struggle to pay rent?

About 9.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 17201003000 compare to Rockford overall?

Tract 17201003000 scores 3.8/10, lower than the parent city of Rockford at 4.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Rockford eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 17201003000 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of B. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Rockford

Top eight tracts in Rockford ranked by composite eviction-risk score.