Churchill's Grove Eviction Risk: Moderate , Rockford

Against Winnebago County at 44.4%, 59% of renters here are cost-burdened. The poverty rate is 40%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. Severe burden reaches 29%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.

Annualized rent equals 34% of average household income of $32,740, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with. 74% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. Housing insecurity runs 29.8% against 14.2% nationally.

On the softer side, rent-regulation exposure reads 2/10. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 23.0% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. It sits 1.1 points above the Winnebago County average of 4.3.

Running cool, tenant-organizing strength reads 3/10. This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Rockford. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.