Neighborhood · Ranked #9,878 of 84,120 nationally

Churchill's Grove Eviction Risk: Elevated , Rockford

Tract 17201003100 · Winnebago County, IL · pop 3,500 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi

With a score of 5.7/10, tract 17201003100 in Churchill's Grove in Rockford ranks in the Moderate tier for landlord eviction risk. The tract is home to 3,500 residents. That is riskier than about 65% of US census tracts.

About 59% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 29% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $939 a month against an average household income of $32,740 a year, roughly 34% of income at the averages. About 74% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score

6.2

Elevated

Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 44% Stable renters 30% Owners 26%

Tract context

Occupied units1,497

Renter share74.1%

SVI overall0.92

Poverty rate40.3%

Median income$32,740

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Rockford and the region

Centroid at 42.2845, -89.0927 · click any tract to drill in

Why Churchill's Grove scores 6.2

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Rockford

4.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.1

State political climate

Illinois legislature & governorship

5.2

Economic stress

40.3% poverty · this tract

10.0

Supply constraint

$939 rent vs county FMR

3.0

Rent control risk

Inherited from Rockford

2.0

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

3.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Rockford

3.0

Housing court bias

Inherited from Rockford

3.5

How Churchill's Grove compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 92

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

91%Socioeconomic
92%Household composition
77%Racial/ethnic minority
74%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
24%Grade B
39%Grade C
22%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Churchill's Grove. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

29.8%Housing insecurity
23.0%Utility-shutoff threat
40.4%Food insecurity
46.3%SNAP enrollment
20.5%Transit barriers
15.8%No health insurance
22.9%Frequent mental distress
42.3%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Churchill's Grove

The score leans hardest on economic stress at $1/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Rockford eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Winnebago County average of 5.0 and in line with the Illinois statewide average of 5.4. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is Black and White and ranks around the 92nd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

In CDC survey modeling, about 29.8% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 23.0% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 17201003100

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 17201003100?

Census tract 17201003100 in the Churchill's Grove neighborhood scores 6.2/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 17201003100?

Median gross rent is $939/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 59% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 17201003100?

40.3% of residents in tract 17201003100 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,500.

How socially vulnerable is tract 17201003100?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 92th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 91th, household 92th, minority 77th, housing 74th.

Is tract 17201003100 considered part of Churchill's Grove?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 17201003100 fall within Churchill's Grove (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 17201003100 struggle to pay rent?

About 29.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 23.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 17201003100 compare to Rockford overall?

Tract 17201003100 scores 6.2/10, higher than the parent city of Rockford at 4.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Rockford eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 17201003100 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 22% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Rockford

Top eight tracts in Rockford ranked by composite eviction-risk score.