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Neighborhood · Ranked #61,558 of 84,120 nationally

Grays Lake Eviction Risk: Lower , Des Moines

Tract 19153004100 · Polk County, IA · pop 3,179 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi

Census tract 19153004100 covers part of the Grays Lake area of Des Moines, IA, and scores 3.3/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 3,179 residents. Against Polk County at 42.0%, 84% of renters here are cost-burdened.

Risk score
3.3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 10% Stable renters 2% Owners 88%
Tract context
Occupied units1,541
Renter share11.6%
SVI overall0.28
Poverty rate7.8%
Median income$81,438

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Grays Lake
Moderate
Within parent city
24 th percentile
Rank, 24th percentileLowHigh
#46 of 60 tracts In Des Moines
Low
Within county
41 th percentile
Rank, 41st percentileLowHigh
#67 of 112 tracts In Polk County
Moderate
Within state
44 th percentile
Rank, 44th percentileLowHigh
#501 of 896 tracts In Iowa
Moderate
Geographic context

Risk heat across Des Moines and the region

Centroid at 41.5647, -93.6332 · click any tract to drill in

Why Grays Lake scores 3.3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Des Moines
4.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.8
State political climate
Iowa legislature & governorship
2.3
Economic stress
7.8% poverty · this tract
2.0
Supply constraint
$978 rent vs county FMR
3.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Des Moines
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Des Moines
3.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Des Moines
2.5

How Grays Lake compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Grays Lake risk score vs. parent city / county / state3.3This tracttract 0041003.4Des Moinesparent city3.8Countyavg tract in county3.7Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 28

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 178Total filings over 10 yrs
  • 6.36%Avg annual filing rate
  • 13.6%Peak (2010)
  • 25Filings in 2015 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2006 to 2015
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 19153004100
Filings climbed 32% over the past 10 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Grays Lake

Pulling hardest the other way is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10. 20% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. Running hot, court filing pressure reads 8.2/10.

Running cool, economic stress reads 2/10. The filing record is not thin: 178 evictions over 10 years of observation. Food insecurity runs 10.8% against 17.8% nationally.

At $978 a month, rents run 10% under what the rest of Des Moines commands. The worst year on record was 2010, when 13.6% of renter households were served.

This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Des Moines. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. In a typical year about 6.4% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 27th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.

At 12% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. Social vulnerability reads 3.5/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Rent consumes only 14% of average household income of $81,438, an unusually wide affordability cushion.

Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 19153004100

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 19153004100?

Census tract 19153004100 in the Grays Lake neighborhood scores 3.3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 19153004100?

Median gross rent is $978/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 84% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 19153004100?

7.8% of residents in tract 19153004100 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,179.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 19153004100?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 28th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 32th, household 64th, minority 23th, housing 19th.
Q5

Is tract 19153004100 considered part of Grays Lake?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 19153004100 fall within Grays Lake (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 19153004100?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 178 eviction filings across 10 validated years in tract 19153004100 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 6.36% of renter households, peaking at 13.6% in 2010. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 19153004100 struggle to pay rent?

About 9.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 19153004100 compare to Des Moines overall?

Tract 19153004100 scores 3.3/10, right in line with the parent city of Des Moines at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Des Moines eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9

Was tract 19153004100 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Des Moines

Top eight tracts in Des Moines ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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