Within parent city
75
th percentile
High
Census Tract · Ranked #44,239 of 84,120 nationally
White Bear Lake Eviction Risk: Moderate
Tract 27123040302 · Ramsey County, MN · pop 5,223 · 82% of tract blocks fall in White Bear Lake
With a score of 4.3/10, tract 27123040302 in White Bear Lake, MN reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 5,223. 26% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Risk score
4.3
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 17%
Stable renters 12%
Owners 71%
Tract context
Occupied units2,030
Renter share29.0%
SVI overall0.38
Poverty rate7.0%
Median income$72,368
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
29
th percentile
Low
Within state
57
th percentile
Elevated
National
47
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across White Bear Lake and the region
Centroid at 45.0596, -93.0040 · click any tract to drill in
Why White Bear Lake scores 4.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from White Bear Lake
7.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.3
State political climate
Minnesota legislature & governorship
4.3
Economic stress
7.0% poverty · this tract
1.7
Supply constraint
$1,548 rent vs county FMR
4.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from White Bear Lake
6.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from White Bear Lake
7.3
Housing court bias
Inherited from White Bear Lake
5.4
How White Bear Lake compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 38
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 14%Socioeconomic
- 84%Household composition
- 33%Racial/ethnic minority
- 50%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 159Total filings over 7 yrs
- 4.13%Avg annual filing rate
- 6.3%Peak (2009)
- 17Filings in 2015 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 51% over the past 7 months.
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 132Total filings 2020-21
- 1.7Avg monthly (observed)
- 1.2Pre-pandemic baseline
- 1.42×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran above baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Minneapolis-Saint Paul, MN as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 7.8%Housing insecurity
- 4.7%Utility-shutoff threat
- 9.4%Food insecurity
- 5.8%SNAP enrollment
- 6.1%Transit barriers
- 5.6%No health insurance
- 15.2%Frequent mental distress
- 25.6%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in White Bear Lake
Against Ramsey County at 47.3%, 58% of renters here are cost-burdened. Pulling hardest the other way is economic stress at 1.7/10. It sits 1.3 points below the Ramsey County average of 5.6.
On the high side, local political climate reads 7.5/10. SNAP participation runs 5.8% against 15.2% nationally. Sitting well above the midpoint, regional political climate reads 7.3/10.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 159 filings here across 7 tracked years. Food insecurity runs 9.4% against 17.8% nationally. The worst year on record was 2009, when 6.3% of renter households were served.
In a typical year about 4.1% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 47% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 4.4/10.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 27123040302
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 27123040302?
Census tract 27123040302 in White Bear Lake scores 4.3/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 27123040302?
Median gross rent is $1,548/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 58% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 27123040302?
7.0% of residents in tract 27123040302 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,223.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 27123040302?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 38th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 14th, household 84th, minority 33th, housing 50th.
Q5
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 27123040302?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 159 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 27123040302 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 4.13% of renter households, peaking at 6.3% in 2009. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6
Did eviction filings in tract 27123040302 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 1.42× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings ran above pre-pandemic norms. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Minneapolis eviction risk-Saint Paul, MN), 2020-2021.
Q7
What share of households in tract 27123040302 struggle to pay rent?
About 7.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 27123040302 compare to White Bear Lake overall?
Tract 27123040302 scores 4.3/10, right in line with the parent city of White Bear Lake at 4.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from White Bear Lake eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in White Bear Lake
Top eight tracts in White Bear Lake ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · MN
27123040402
4.5
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · MN
27123040502
4.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · MN
27123040504
4.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · MN
27123040200
4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · MN
27123040401
3.6
/ 10 · Low
Tract · MN
27123040503
3.2
/ 10 · Low
Tract · MN
27123040102
3.1
/ 10 · Low
Tract · MN
27123040301
3.1
/ 10 · Low
Related
Explore the geography around tract 27123040302
Parent city ↑
White Bear Lake
4.5 / 10
Parent county ↑
Ramsey County
Parent state ↑
Minnesota
Sibling tract →
Tract 27123040502
4.3 / 10
Sibling tract →
Sherwood Park Neighborhood
4.3 / 10
Sibling tract →
Sherwood Park Neighborhood
4.3 / 10
Methodology
How the score is built
Interactive map
Explore all 84k tracts