Within parent city
88
th percentile
High
Census Tract · Ranked #56,660 of 84,120 nationally
White Bear Lake Eviction Risk: Lower
Tract 27123040502 · Ramsey County, MN · pop 2,720
Census tract 27123040502 covers White Bear Lake, home to 2,720 residents. For landlords it grades 5.6/10, a moderate reading. It lands near the 61st percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.
Rent eats 30% or more of income for 59% of renter households, a severe level, and 26% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,407 a month against an average household income of $56,579 a year, roughly 30% of income at the averages. Renters make up 35% of occupied homes.
Risk score
3.1
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 21%
Stable renters 15%
Owners 64%
Tract context
Occupied units1,158
Renter share35.4%
SVI overall0.57
Poverty rate3.1%
Median income$56,579
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
25
th percentile
Low
Within state
46
th percentile
Moderate
National
33
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across White Bear Lake and the region
Centroid at 45.0918, -93.0129 · click any tract to drill in
Why White Bear Lake scores 3.1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from White Bear Lake
7.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.3
State political climate
Minnesota legislature & governorship
4.3
Economic stress
3.1% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$1,407 rent vs county FMR
3.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from White Bear Lake
6.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from White Bear Lake
7.3
Housing court bias
Inherited from White Bear Lake
5.4
How White Bear Lake compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 57
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 36%Socioeconomic
- 96%Household composition
- 16%Racial/ethnic minority
- 53%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 72Total filings over 7 yrs
- 2.65%Avg annual filing rate
- 3.9%Peak (2009)
- 11Filings in 2015 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 27% over the past 7 months.
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 19Total filings 2020-21
- 0.3Avg monthly (observed)
- 0.5Pre-pandemic baseline
- 0.47×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran far below baseline (moratorium effect). Eviction Lab tracked Minneapolis-Saint Paul, MN as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 7.9%Housing insecurity
- 4.7%Utility-shutoff threat
- 9.9%Food insecurity
- 6.2%SNAP enrollment
- 6.3%Transit barriers
- 6.5%No health insurance
- 15.3%Frequent mental distress
- 30.7%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in White Bear Lake
The score leans hardest on tenant organizing strength at 7.3/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from White Bear Lake eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Ramsey County average of 6.0 and above the Minnesota statewide average of 5.0. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.
In CDC survey modeling, about 7.9% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 4.7% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 72 eviction filings here over 7 tracked years, with about 2.7% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 3.9% of renter households in 2009.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 27123040502
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 27123040502?
Census tract 27123040502 in White Bear Lake scores 3.1/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 27123040502?
Median gross rent is $1,407/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 59% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 27123040502?
3.1% of residents in tract 27123040502 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,720.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 27123040502?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 57th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 36th, household 96th, minority 16th, housing 53th.
Q5
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 27123040502?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 72 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 27123040502 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.65% of renter households, peaking at 3.9% in 2009. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6
Did eviction filings in tract 27123040502 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 0.47× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings dropped sharply, likely a moratorium effect. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Minneapolis eviction risk-Saint Paul, MN), 2020-2021.
Q7
What share of households in tract 27123040502 struggle to pay rent?
About 7.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 27123040502 compare to White Bear Lake overall?
Tract 27123040502 scores 3.1/10, lower than the parent city of White Bear Lake at 5.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from White Bear Lake eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in White Bear Lake
Top eight tracts in White Bear Lake ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · MN
27123040402
3.2
/ 10 · Low
Tract · MN
27123040302
3.1
/ 10 · Low
Tract · MN
27123040504
3
/ 10 · Low
Tract · MN
27123040200
2.9
/ 10 · Low
Tract · MN
27123040401
2.6
/ 10 · Low
Tract · MN
27123040503
2.3
/ 10 · Low
Tract · MN
27123040301
2.2
/ 10 · Low
Tract · MN
27123040102
1.6
/ 10 · Very Low
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