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Census Tract · Ranked #44,239 of 84,120 nationally

White Bear Lake Eviction Risk: Moderate

Tract 27123040502 · Ramsey County, MN · pop 2,720

Tract 27123040502 sits in White Bear Lake eviction risk, MN, carrying an eviction-risk score of 4.3/10. It is home to 2,720 residents. Pulling hardest the other way is economic stress at 1/10.

Risk score
4.3
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 21% Stable renters 15% Owners 64%
Tract context
Occupied units1,158
Renter share35.4%
SVI overall0.57
Poverty rate3.1%
Median income$56,579

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within parent city
75 th percentile
Rank, 75th percentileLowHigh
#3 of 9 tracts In White Bear Lake
High
Within county
30 th percentile
Rank, 30th percentileLowHigh
#101 of 143 tracts In Ramsey County
Low
Within state
57 th percentile
Rank, 57th percentileLowHigh
#648 of 1,502 tracts In Minnesota
Elevated
National
47 th percentile
Rank, 47th percentileLowHigh
#44,239 of 84,120 tracts In U.S.
Moderate
Geographic context

Risk heat across White Bear Lake and the region

Centroid at 45.0918, -93.0129 · click any tract to drill in

Why White Bear Lake scores 4.3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from White Bear Lake
7.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.3
State political climate
Minnesota legislature & governorship
4.3
Economic stress
3.1% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$1,407 rent vs county FMR
3.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from White Bear Lake
6.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from White Bear Lake
7.3
Housing court bias
Inherited from White Bear Lake
5.4

How White Bear Lake compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
White Bear Lake risk score vs. parent city / county / state4.3This tracttract 0405024.5White Bear Lakeparent city5.6Countyavg tract in county4.5Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 57

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 72Total filings over 7 yrs
  • 2.65%Avg annual filing rate
  • 3.9%Peak (2009)
  • 11Filings in 2015 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2009 to 2015
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 27123040502
Filings dropped 27% over the past 7 months.

Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)

  • 19Total filings 2020-21
  • 0.3Avg monthly (observed)
  • 0.5Pre-pandemic baseline
  • 0.47×Ratio to baseline
Monthly filings 2020–2021 2020-01-01 to 2026-05-01
Monthly eviction filings vs pre-pandemic baseline

Pandemic filings ran far below baseline (moratorium effect). Eviction Lab tracked Minneapolis-Saint Paul, MN as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in White Bear Lake

26% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. 59% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, markedly above the Ramsey County average of 47.3%. Against the Ramsey County average of 5.6, this tract reads safer for landlords by 1.3 points.

On the high side, local political climate reads 7.5/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, regional political climate reads 7.3/10.

SNAP participation runs 6.2% against 15.2% nationally. The filing record is not thin: 72 evictions over 7 years of observation.

Food insecurity runs 9.9% against 17.8% nationally. Average gross rent is $1,407, 12% below the White Bear Lake average.

Filings peaked in 2009 at 3.9% of renter households. In a typical year about 2.7% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #44,239 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

Social vulnerability reads 6.2/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 27123040502

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 27123040502?

Census tract 27123040502 in White Bear Lake scores 4.3/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 27123040502?

Median gross rent is $1,407/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 59% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 27123040502?

3.1% of residents in tract 27123040502 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,720.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 27123040502?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 57th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 36th, household 96th, minority 16th, housing 53th.
Q5

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 27123040502?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 72 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 27123040502 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.65% of renter households, peaking at 3.9% in 2009. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6

Did eviction filings in tract 27123040502 drop during COVID?

Pandemic-era filings ran 0.47× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings dropped sharply, likely a moratorium effect. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Minneapolis eviction risk-Saint Paul, MN), 2020-2021.
Q7

What share of households in tract 27123040502 struggle to pay rent?

About 7.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 27123040502 compare to White Bear Lake overall?

Tract 27123040502 scores 4.3/10, right in line with the parent city of White Bear Lake at 4.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from White Bear Lake eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in White Bear Lake

Top eight tracts in White Bear Lake ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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