Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Census Tract · Ranked #41,206 of 84,120 nationally
White Bear Lake Eviction Risk: Moderate
Tract 27123040402 · Ramsey County, MN · pop 5,624 · 92% of tract blocks fall in White Bear Lake
Census tract 27123040402 covers part of White Bear Lake, MN, and scores 4.5/10 on landlord eviction risk. The severe-burden share is 27%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
4.5
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 13%
Stable renters 17%
Owners 70%
Tract context
Occupied units2,209
Renter share30.0%
SVI overall0.57
Poverty rate14.8%
Median income$96,875
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
32
th percentile
Low
Within state
61
th percentile
Elevated
National
51
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across White Bear Lake and the region
Centroid at 45.0402, -93.0103 · click any tract to drill in
Why White Bear Lake scores 4.5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from White Bear Lake
7.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.3
State political climate
Minnesota legislature & governorship
4.3
Economic stress
14.8% poverty · this tract
3.7
Supply constraint
$1,488 rent vs county FMR
3.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from White Bear Lake
6.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from White Bear Lake
7.3
Housing court bias
Inherited from White Bear Lake
5.4
How White Bear Lake compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 57
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 29%Socioeconomic
- 85%Household composition
- 38%Racial/ethnic minority
- 72%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 226Total filings over 7 yrs
- 6.35%Avg annual filing rate
- 10.2%Peak (2012)
- 21Filings in 2015 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 19% over the past 7 months.
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 102Total filings 2020-21
- 1.3Avg monthly (observed)
- 1.8Pre-pandemic baseline
- 0.72×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran below baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Minneapolis-Saint Paul, MN as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 9.2%Housing insecurity
- 5.6%Utility-shutoff threat
- 12.0%Food insecurity
- 7.8%SNAP enrollment
- 7.4%Transit barriers
- 6.8%No health insurance
- 15.8%Frequent mental distress
- 28.6%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in White Bear Lake
The score leans hardest on local political climate at 7.5/10. Running hot, regional political climate reads 7.3/10. Against the Ramsey County average of 5.6, this tract reads safer for landlords by 1.1 points.
On the high side, tenant-organizing strength reads 7.3/10. Court records carry 226 eviction filings across 7 observed years.
Against Ramsey County at 47.3%, 43% of renters here are cost-burdened. SNAP participation runs 7.8% against 15.2% nationally. Filings peaked in 2012 at 10.2% of renter households.
In a typical year about 6.4% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 51% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 6.1/10. Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured. Average gross rent is $1,488, close to the White Bear Lake average.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 27123040402
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 27123040402?
Census tract 27123040402 in White Bear Lake scores 4.5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 27123040402?
Median gross rent is $1,488/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 43% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 27123040402?
14.8% of residents in tract 27123040402 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,624.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 27123040402?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 57th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 29th, household 85th, minority 38th, housing 72th.
Q5
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 27123040402?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 226 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 27123040402 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 6.35% of renter households, peaking at 10.2% in 2012. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6
Did eviction filings in tract 27123040402 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 0.72× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings ran modestly below normal. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Minneapolis eviction risk-Saint Paul, MN), 2020-2021.
Q7
What share of households in tract 27123040402 struggle to pay rent?
About 9.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 27123040402 compare to White Bear Lake overall?
Tract 27123040402 scores 4.5/10, right in line with the parent city of White Bear Lake at 4.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from White Bear Lake eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in White Bear Lake
Top eight tracts in White Bear Lake ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · MN
27123040302
4.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · MN
27123040502
4.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · MN
27123040504
4.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · MN
27123040200
4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · MN
27123040401
3.6
/ 10 · Low
Tract · MN
27123040503
3.2
/ 10 · Low
Tract · MN
27123040102
3.1
/ 10 · Low
Tract · MN
27123040301
3.1
/ 10 · Low
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