Census Tract · Ranked #16,571 of 84,120 nationally

Elizabeth Eviction Risk: Elevated

Tract 34039032102 · Union County, NJ · pop 3,303

34039032102 is a census tract in Elizabeth, NJ. It scores 6.3/10 for landlords. It is home to 3,303 residents. Pulling hardest the other way is economic stress at 1/10.

Risk score

6.3

Elevated

Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 0% Stable renters 3% Owners 97%

Tract context

Occupied units1,033

Renter share3.1%

SVI overall0.37

Poverty rate2.1%

Median income$133,769

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Elizabeth and the region

Centroid at 40.6709, -74.2434 · click any tract to drill in

Why Elizabeth scores 6.3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Elizabeth

7.0

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.8

State political climate

New Jersey legislature & governorship

6.8

Economic stress

2.1% poverty · this tract

1.0

Supply constraint

tract rent vs county FMR

5.0

Rent control risk

Inherited from Elizabeth

7.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

7.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Elizabeth

6.5

Housing court bias

Inherited from Elizabeth

7.0

How Elizabeth compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 37

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

54%Socioeconomic
70%Household composition
61%Racial/ethnic minority
6%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: B: Still Desirable

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade B meant middle-class areas with mortgage access. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

42%Grade A
56%Grade B
0%Grade C
0%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

11.5%Housing insecurity
5.5%Utility-shutoff threat
12.4%Food insecurity
5.8%SNAP enrollment
6.3%Transit barriers
14.4%No health insurance
13.3%Frequent mental distress
23.1%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Elizabeth

Running hot, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 7.5/10.

SNAP participation runs 5.8% against 15.2% nationally. This ground was mapped B ("Still Desirable") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Union Co. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above.

That is riskier than roughly 80% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Only 3% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.

On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 4.4/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured. Poverty sits at 2%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.

It tracks the Union County average of 6.6 closely.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 34039032102

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 34039032102?

Census tract 34039032102 in Elizabeth scores 6.3/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the poverty rate in tract 34039032102?

2.1% of residents in tract 34039032102 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,303.

How socially vulnerable is tract 34039032102?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 37th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 54th, household 70th, minority 61th, housing 6th.

What share of households in tract 34039032102 struggle to pay rent?

About 11.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 34039032102 compare to Elizabeth overall?

Tract 34039032102 scores 6.3/10, lower than the parent city of Elizabeth at 7.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Elizabeth eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 34039032102 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of B. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Elizabeth

Top eight tracts in Elizabeth ranked by composite eviction-risk score.