Neighborhood · Ranked #3,082 of 84,120 nationally

Larkinville Eviction Risk: High , Buffalo

Tract 36029001602 · Erie County, NY · pop 1,165 · neighborhood within 1.0 mi

Tract 36029001602 sits in the Larkinville area of Buffalo eviction risk, NY, carrying an eviction-risk score of 9.3/10. Population here is 1,165. Severe burden reaches 49%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.

Risk score

9.3

High

Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 36% Stable renters 15% Owners 49%

Tract context

Occupied units573

Renter share51.0%

SVI overall0.90

Poverty rate26.4%

Median income$25,069

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Buffalo and the region

Centroid at 42.8892, -78.8396 · click any tract to drill in

Why Larkinville scores 9.3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Buffalo

8.0

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.7

State political climate

New York legislature & governorship

7.3

Economic stress

26.4% poverty · this tract

6.6

Supply constraint

$669 rent vs county FMR

1.0

Rent control risk

Inherited from Buffalo

7.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

8.0

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Buffalo

7.5

Housing court bias

Inherited from Buffalo

7.5

How Larkinville compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 90

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

93%Socioeconomic
97%Household composition
83%Racial/ethnic minority
44%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
0%Grade B
75%Grade C
0%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Larkinville. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

33.3%Housing insecurity
24.7%Utility-shutoff threat
44.0%Food insecurity
47.4%SNAP enrollment
21.8%Transit barriers
13.0%No health insurance
20.9%Frequent mental distress
37.5%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Larkinville

71% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well clear of the Erie County average of 44.6%. SNAP participation runs 47.4% against 15.2% nationally.

Food insecurity runs 44.0% against 17.8% nationally. It sits 2.5 points above the Erie County average of 6.8. The clearest offset is supply constraint at 1/10.

At $669 a month, rents run 36% under what the rest of Buffalo commands. Annualized rent equals 32% of average household income of $25,069, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with.

Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 8/10. The poverty rate is 26%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Running hot, eviction-process difficulty reads 8/10.

This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Buffalo. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. On the national scale it lands near the 96th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 36029001602

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 36029001602?

Census tract 36029001602 in the Larkinville neighborhood scores 9.3/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 36029001602?

Median gross rent is $669/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 71% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 36029001602?

26.4% of residents in tract 36029001602 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,165.

How socially vulnerable is tract 36029001602?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 90th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 93th, household 97th, minority 83th, housing 44th.

Is tract 36029001602 considered part of Larkinville?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 36029001602 fall within Larkinville (neighborhood centroid within 1.0 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 36029001602 struggle to pay rent?

About 33.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 24.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 36029001602 compare to Buffalo overall?

Tract 36029001602 scores 9.3/10, higher than the parent city of Buffalo at 7.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Buffalo eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 36029001602 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Buffalo

Top eight tracts in Buffalo ranked by composite eviction-risk score.