Neighborhood · Ranked #1,455 of 84,120 nationally

Larkinville Eviction Risk: High , Buffalo

Tract 36029001404 · Erie County, NY · pop 547 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi

For landlords sizing up the Larkinville area of Buffalo, census tract 36029001404 carries an elevated eviction-risk score of 7.2/10. It lands near the 96th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

About 46% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 17% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $355 a month against an average household income of $12,738 a year, roughly 33% of income at the averages. About 84% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score

8.3

High

Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 38% Stable renters 46% Owners 16%

Tract context

Occupied units408

Renter share83.8%

SVI overall0.93

Poverty rate58.4%

Median income$12,738

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Buffalo and the region

Centroid at 42.8859, -78.8586 · click any tract to drill in

Why Larkinville scores 8.3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Buffalo

8.0

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.7

State political climate

New York legislature & governorship

7.3

Economic stress

58.4% poverty · this tract

10.0

Supply constraint

$355 rent vs county FMR

1.0

Rent control risk

Inherited from Buffalo

7.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

8.0

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Buffalo

7.5

Housing court bias

Inherited from Buffalo

7.5

How Larkinville compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 93

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

96%Socioeconomic
99%Household composition
98%Racial/ethnic minority
35%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
0%Grade B
0%Grade C
53%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Larkinville. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

47.8%Housing insecurity
41.2%Utility-shutoff threat
65.7%Food insecurity
75.3%SNAP enrollment
35.6%Transit barriers
20.4%No health insurance
24.0%Frequent mental distress
51.6%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Larkinville

What moves this score most is economic stress at $1/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Buffalo eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Erie County average of 6.1 and above the New York statewide average of 6.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is predominantly Black and ranks around the 93rd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

This tract overlaps land the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation redlined in the 1930s, a dominant grade of D ("Hazardous") across 53% of the tract. Redlining cut off mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class blocks, and those areas still tend to carry higher rent burden and eviction filings today.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 36029001404

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 36029001404?

Census tract 36029001404 in the Larkinville neighborhood scores 8.3/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 36029001404?

Median gross rent is $355/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 46% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 36029001404?

58.4% of residents in tract 36029001404 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 547.

How socially vulnerable is tract 36029001404?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 93th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 96th, household 99th, minority 98th, housing 35th.

Is tract 36029001404 considered part of Larkinville?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 36029001404 fall within Larkinville (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 36029001404 struggle to pay rent?

About 47.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 41.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 36029001404 compare to Buffalo overall?

Tract 36029001404 scores 8.3/10, lower than the parent city of Buffalo at 9.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Buffalo eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 36029001404 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 53% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Buffalo

Top eight tracts in Buffalo ranked by composite eviction-risk score.