Neighborhood · Ranked #550 of 84,120 nationally

Larkinville Eviction Risk: High , Buffalo

Tract 36029016400 · Erie County, NY · pop 3,153 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi

For landlords sizing up the Larkinville neighborhood of Buffalo, census tract 36029016400 carries an elevated eviction-risk score of 7.1/10. That is riskier than roughly 95% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.

46% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 36% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $943 a month against an average household income of $43,036 a year, roughly 26% of income at the averages. About 73% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score

8.9

High

Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 33% Stable renters 40% Owners 27%

Tract context

Occupied units1,697

Renter share73.4%

SVI overall0.91

Poverty rate32.5%

Median income$43,036

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Buffalo and the region

Centroid at 42.8741, -78.8591 · click any tract to drill in

Why Larkinville scores 8.9

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Buffalo

8.0

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.7

State political climate

New York legislature & governorship

7.3

Economic stress

32.5% poverty · this tract

8.1

Supply constraint

$943 rent vs county FMR

3.0

Rent control risk

Inherited from Buffalo

7.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

8.0

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Buffalo

7.5

Housing court bias

Inherited from Buffalo

7.5

How Larkinville compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 91

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

95%Socioeconomic
73%Household composition
69%Racial/ethnic minority
81%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
0%Grade B
20%Grade C
51%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Larkinville. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

26.3%Housing insecurity
17.5%Utility-shutoff threat
32.0%Food insecurity
32.5%SNAP enrollment
16.3%Transit barriers
12.3%No health insurance
20.3%Frequent mental distress
32.6%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Larkinville

The heaviest input here is economic stress at 8.1/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Buffalo eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Erie County average of 6.1 and above the New York statewide average of 6.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

This tract overlaps land the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation redlined in the 1930s, a dominant grade of D ("Hazardous") across 51% of the tract. Redlining cut off mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class blocks, and those areas still tend to carry higher rent burden and eviction filings today.

The tract is White and Hispanic or Latino and ranks around the 91st percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 36029016400

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 36029016400?

Census tract 36029016400 in the Larkinville neighborhood scores 8.9/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 36029016400?

Median gross rent is $943/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 46% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 36029016400?

32.5% of residents in tract 36029016400 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,153.

How socially vulnerable is tract 36029016400?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 91th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 95th, household 73th, minority 69th, housing 81th.

Is tract 36029016400 considered part of Larkinville?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 36029016400 fall within Larkinville (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 36029016400 struggle to pay rent?

About 26.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 17.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 36029016400 compare to Buffalo overall?

Tract 36029016400 scores 8.9/10, lower than the parent city of Buffalo at 9.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Buffalo eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 36029016400 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 51% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Buffalo

Top eight tracts in Buffalo ranked by composite eviction-risk score.